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PostPosted: Mon Jan 14, 2013 11:00 pm 
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lamo wrote:
M.Nader -DODZ- wrote:
lamo wrote:
M.Nader -DODZ- wrote:
POBRatings wrote:
M Nader asked how would JB and KR do against Vettel.
Interesting one, because in some ways Jenson and Kimi are similar drivers, very sensitive to chassis balance and sometimes being too smooth to warm their tyres.

I think Vettel would beat them both in same-cars.

JB is not as fast as Lewis, and I don't reckon Kimi would be quite as fast as Seb,Lewis, or Fred. Kimi's two year break surely could not quite match him to the other three who have been going at the top all the time?

KR should be faster in 2013 if his car /team are sound. Was the Lotus-Renault really fast in 2012, or was it the two drivers?
KR against JB in same cars? Would be a good one. Posters views?


I respectfully disagree, I agree that Kimi, Button and Alonso are not as fast as Lewis or Vettel.

But over a season i would put my money on the former 3 against the latter 2. i would say Button, Alonso and Kimi are race specialists while Lewis and Seb are quali specialists.


You don't have to play what if with two of those pairings have already happened ..

Lewis 2-1 Jenson
Lewis 1-0 Fernando.

Both opposite to your prediction, everybodies entitled to an opinion.


True, but this shows that Jenson did beat Lewis in one season and was very close in another (points wise). and Lewis and Fernando finished with the same points so saying Lewis won it is not entirely true (although technically it is).

Coulthard beat Hakkinen a couple of times but when it came to a WDC Hak. always ended on top.

would you say that Alonso, Button and Kimi have 0 chance to be WDC if partnered with either Lewis or Vettel? i would say they have about 55-60% chance of beating their teammates. i bet you have that 60% in the opposite direction, opinions :)

i would also change that % depending on the regulations.


In the other direction would be supported by what has occurred.

With 2007, from Monaco onwards (after Monaco-gate) Lewis had quite an advantage, although I think Mclaren might have screwed Alonso in the latter part of the season. From Monaco Lewis had 6 poles, 4 wins. Alonso 1 win, 1 pole.

You could argue the team favoured Lewis so Alonso slowed down or Lewis had found his feet after the first 6 races and is/was slightly better than Alonso
.

To answer your question, provided reliability was equal;
Alonso - Hamilton 50/50
Button - Hamilton 20/80
Raikkonen - Hamilton 20/80
Vettel - Hamilton 50/50


:nod:

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 2:27 am 
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Blinky McSquinty wrote:
Once again, we got on the toboggan and when it arrives at the bottom of the hill, it's 2007 all over again and "Hamilton beat Alonso". It seems that no matter how many passengers or where you start on the hill, it always arrives at the same destination. Is there any topic or thread in the entire history of PF1 forum where someone doesn't interject "yea, but Hamilton..."?


IMO, only Alonso, and Raikkonen could have beaten Vettel and won the WDC in the Red Bull. All the remainder don't measure up, they are lacking in certain critical regimes.


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 2:30 am 
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pokerman wrote:
Agreed he would have a heads up but how much time does it take the likes of topliners like Alonso and Hamilton to get up to speed, Massa was at Ferrari for over 3 years but Alonso had him beat from the get go, i just don't believe it takes drivers like these that much time to get on top of what they need to be doing to extract the best from the car plus they also have Vettel's data to look at.

It took Alonso quite awhile to adapt to the Bridgestones in 2007, IIRC around half a season.

The other point of alienturnedhuman's that I'd expand on a bit is that it's not just about adapting to be able to drive it, but about extracting the maximum from the car. Alonso and Hamilton might adapt to be able to drive the car fairly quickly, but Vettel know the ins and outs much better and would therefore be able to make the slight tweaks to get the most from the car. Plus the level of adaptability and maximising performance depends on how far removed the Red Bull is from their preferred driving style, which in the case of both Alonso and Hamilton I think is quite significant.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 2:31 am 
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SchumieRules wrote:
Johnston wrote:
Who knows. It's a bit like asking did Red bull ever think about giving webber agrid drop to help Seb.

Even if it did think about it whether they would do it. Remember Whitmarsh making comments about their Sponsors not liking them flying so close to the wind on Regs?

Can't remember his exact words but I got the impression that they need to be whiter than white these days.


That's an interesting point about the sponsors, I wonder if the Ferrari sponsors ever made a fuss over the Massa penalty

I've mused about that situation the other way around. How much did Santander's sponsorship play on Ferrari's mind when they were considering doing it?

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 2:37 am 
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Which drivers? In no certain order:

1. Lewis Hamilton
2. Nico Hulkenberg
3. Jules Bianchi (there's a gut-feeling about this guy).


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 5:12 am 
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We can attempt to answer this question with some empirical data.
Alonso and Vettel have never been teammates, so we can't really directly compare them. However if we take their head-to-head statistics against previous teammates and derive a heirarchy of driver performance:

Alonso? Probably not, based on head-to-head statistics:
Image

Now this is based on how many times a driver finishes higher than his teammate, not points (since points system has changed it would be difficult to compare points).
I've also excluded races where both drivers dnf or one driver doesn't even start a race.

I also intentionally left out Massa from the chart since Alonso and Massa were not teammates until after Massa's accident (which Felipe never really recovered from).


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 6:02 am 
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aryaputhra wrote:
Which drivers? In no certain order:

1. Lewis Hamilton
2. Nico Hulkenberg
3. Jules Bianchi (there's a gut-feeling about this guy).

Lewis is of course a real possibility, but what on earth makes you believe two drivers that have won nothing in F1 (the latter one hasn't even participated in a single race yet!) could take on the 3 title champ who's been driving for the team for years??

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 7:31 am 
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Covalent wrote:
aryaputhra wrote:
Which drivers? In no certain order:

1. Lewis Hamilton
2. Nico Hulkenberg
3. Jules Bianchi (there's a gut-feeling about this guy).

Lewis is of course a real possibility, but what on earth makes you believe two drivers that have won nothing in F1 (the latter one hasn't even participated in a single race yet!) could take on the 3 title champ who's been driving for the team for years??


Hulk beat Hamilton in Brazil with an underperforming FI. Sure he wrote him off but that was a rookie mistake. And if you can take the hypothesis that Hamilton can beat Vettel then surely Hulk too can beat Vettel.

Why Bianchi? Like I said, a "gut-instinct" and I'm sticking to it. :twisted:


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 7:40 am 
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Dunno why, but i also think Bianchi is the next best thing to come after Hulkenberg.


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 9:24 am 
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kai_ wrote:
SchumieRules wrote:
Johnston wrote:
Who knows. It's a bit like asking did Red bull ever think about giving webber agrid drop to help Seb.

Even if it did think about it whether they would do it. Remember Whitmarsh making comments about their Sponsors not liking them flying so close to the wind on Regs?

Can't remember his exact words but I got the impression that they need to be whiter than white these days.


That's an interesting point about the sponsors, I wonder if the Ferrari sponsors ever made a fuss over the Massa penalty

I've mused about that situation the other way around. How much did Santander's sponsorship play on Ferrari's mind when they were considering doing it?


Hmm, never thought of it this way.

Afterall, there's no bad publicity!

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 12:31 pm 
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When Vettel doesn't have a rocketship, Hamilton and Alonso will beat him. When he does no one can.


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 12:32 pm 
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kai_ wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Agreed he would have a heads up but how much time does it take the likes of topliners like Alonso and Hamilton to get up to speed, Massa was at Ferrari for over 3 years but Alonso had him beat from the get go, i just don't believe it takes drivers like these that much time to get on top of what they need to be doing to extract the best from the car plus they also have Vettel's data to look at.

It took Alonso quite awhile to adapt to the Bridgestones in 2007, IIRC around half a season.



What makes you say that, if you look at his results. He was strongest in the first 6 races and in qualifying. He out qualified Lewis 4-1 in the first 5 races, the 1 being when Alonsos car was damaged overnight in the pit lane.

The middle of the season was by far his worst period. He got it back together nearer the end, but I think Mclaren were up to something especially in the last 2 races because Lewis was too far ahead.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 12:52 pm 
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kai_ wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Agreed he would have a heads up but how much time does it take the likes of topliners like Alonso and Hamilton to get up to speed, Massa was at Ferrari for over 3 years but Alonso had him beat from the get go, i just don't believe it takes drivers like these that much time to get on top of what they need to be doing to extract the best from the car plus they also have Vettel's data to look at.

It took Alonso quite awhile to adapt to the Bridgestones in 2007, IIRC around half a season.

The other point of alienturnedhuman's that I'd expand on a bit is that it's not just about adapting to be able to drive it, but about extracting the maximum from the car. Alonso and Hamilton might adapt to be able to drive the car fairly quickly, but Vettel know the ins and outs much better and would therefore be able to make the slight tweaks to get the most from the car. Plus the level of adaptability and maximising performance depends on how far removed the Red Bull is from their preferred driving style, which in the case of both Alonso and Hamilton I think is quite significant.

I don't see that it took Alonso any time really to adapt to the Bridgestones

There's no evidence to support the fact that either Alonso or Hamilton are as limited as Webber in being able to adapt to what is required to get the maximum out of the Red Bull

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 12:56 pm 
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takagipower wrote:
We can attempt to answer this question with some empirical data.
Alonso and Vettel have never been teammates, so we can't really directly compare them. However if we take their head-to-head statistics against previous teammates and derive a heirarchy of driver performance:

Alonso? Probably not, based on head-to-head statistics:
Image

Now this is based on how many times a driver finishes higher than his teammate, not points (since points system has changed it would be difficult to compare points).
I've also excluded races where both drivers dnf or one driver doesn't even start a race.

I also intentionally left out Massa from the chart since Alonso and Massa were not teammates until after Massa's accident (which Felipe never really recovered from).

There's no evidence whatsoever to prove Massa isn't the same driver as before, leaving out Massa to suit an agenda makes all the figures meaningless

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 1:01 pm 
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takagipower wrote:
We can attempt to answer this question with some empirical data.
Alonso and Vettel have never been teammates, so we can't really directly compare them. However if we take their head-to-head statistics against previous teammates and derive a heirarchy of driver performance:

Alonso? Probably not, based on head-to-head statistics:
Image

Now this is based on how many times a driver finishes higher than his teammate, not points (since points system has changed it would be difficult to compare points).
I've also excluded races where both drivers dnf or one driver doesn't even start a race.

I also intentionally left out Massa from the chart since Alonso and Massa were not teammates until after Massa's accident (which Felipe never really recovered from).

Not very flattering presented like that :blush:

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 1:18 pm 
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takagipower wrote:
We can attempt to answer this question with some empirical data.
Alonso and Vettel have never been teammates, so we can't really directly compare them. However if we take their head-to-head statistics against previous teammates and derive a heirarchy of driver performance:

Alonso? Probably not, based on head-to-head statistics:
Image

Now this is based on how many times a driver finishes higher than his teammate, not points (since points system has changed it would be difficult to compare points).
I've also excluded races where both drivers dnf or one driver doesn't even start a race.

I also intentionally left out Massa from the chart since Alonso and Massa were not teammates until after Massa's accident (which Felipe never really recovered from).

Except this isn't really empirical data. For a start there is not a big enough sample and the conditions varied each time. It would be like conducting a scientific experiment using different beakers, bunsen burners and atmospheric pressures each time.

Webber is not the same driver he was when he partnered Heidfeld, they were in a different team with a different working relationship, there was a totally different set of technical and sporting regulations. Kubica beat Petrov 16-2 in Petrov's rookie season, chances are Heikki would have managed a much better margin against him if this had been Petrov's first season in the sport. This whole system of measuring Driver A against Driver B in Team X, Driver B against Driver C in Team Y and then being able to determined Driver A against Driver C in Team Z does not work.

For example: Hamilton beat Alonso as team mates. Button beat Hamilton as team mates. Fisichella beat Button as team mates. Alonso beat Fisichella as team mates. So who is better, Button or Alonso? Button, obviously, because Button beat Hamilton and Hamilton beat Alonso. But wait, no, it's Alonso. Because Alonso beat Fisichella and Fisichella beat Button.

You cannot compare like this. As drivers age they gain experience but loose peak fitness. Technical regulations change each year changing the optimal driver style. Different team manage their drivers different and the working environment affects the driver's performance.


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 1:21 pm 
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Covalent wrote:
takagipower wrote:
We can attempt to answer this question with some empirical data.
Alonso and Vettel have never been teammates, so we can't really directly compare them. However if we take their head-to-head statistics against previous teammates and derive a heirarchy of driver performance:

Alonso? Probably not, based on head-to-head statistics:
Image

Now this is based on how many times a driver finishes higher than his teammate, not points (since points system has changed it would be difficult to compare points).
I've also excluded races where both drivers dnf or one driver doesn't even start a race.

I also intentionally left out Massa from the chart since Alonso and Massa were not teammates until after Massa's accident (which Felipe never really recovered from).

Not very flattering presented like that :blush:

Both Vettel and Sutil had Liuzzi as teammates, compare the stats and you have Sutil beating Vettel, maybe Ricciardo as well, this being another teammate of Liuzzi's.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 1:54 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
Covalent wrote:
takagipower wrote:
We can attempt to answer this question with some empirical data.
Alonso and Vettel have never been teammates, so we can't really directly compare them. However if we take their head-to-head statistics against previous teammates and derive a heirarchy of driver performance:

Alonso? Probably not, based on head-to-head statistics:
Image

Now this is based on how many times a driver finishes higher than his teammate, not points (since points system has changed it would be difficult to compare points).
I've also excluded races where both drivers dnf or one driver doesn't even start a race.

I also intentionally left out Massa from the chart since Alonso and Massa were not teammates until after Massa's accident (which Felipe never really recovered from).

Not very flattering presented like that :blush:

Both Vettel and Sutil had Liuzzi as teammates, compare the stats and you have Sutil beating Vettel, maybe Ricciardo as well, this being another teammate of Liuzzi's.

Rosberg beat Schumacher three times. Rosberg is the best F1 driver in history. :S
As interesting as it is to see what takagipower has done (and I do find it interesting seeing the win percentages like that, it's a neat little layout) we can't draw too much from it really. But at the same time, if it's all we have to draw information on, then why not mull over it? It's better than "I hate driver X therefore my favourite driver Y would beat him", which alot of people seem to have as their sole argument.

Vettel's percentage is impressive to be fair.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 2:01 pm 
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jammin78 wrote:
Rosberg beat Schumacher three times. Rosberg is the best F1 driver in history. :S


But Webber beat Rosberg, so surely Vettel is the best :)


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 2:14 pm 
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jammin78 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Covalent wrote:
takagipower wrote:
We can attempt to answer this question with some empirical data.
Alonso and Vettel have never been teammates, so we can't really directly compare them. However if we take their head-to-head statistics against previous teammates and derive a heirarchy of driver performance:

Alonso? Probably not, based on head-to-head statistics:
Image

Now this is based on how many times a driver finishes higher than his teammate, not points (since points system has changed it would be difficult to compare points).
I've also excluded races where both drivers dnf or one driver doesn't even start a race.

I also intentionally left out Massa from the chart since Alonso and Massa were not teammates until after Massa's accident (which Felipe never really recovered from).

Not very flattering presented like that :blush:

Both Vettel and Sutil had Liuzzi as teammates, compare the stats and you have Sutil beating Vettel, maybe Ricciardo as well, this being another teammate of Liuzzi's.

Rosberg beat Schumacher three times. Rosberg is the best F1 driver in history. :S
As interesting as it is to see what takagipower has done (and I do find it interesting seeing the win percentages like that, it's a neat little layout) we can't draw too much from it really. But at the same time, if it's all we have to draw information on, then why not mull over it? It's better than "I hate driver X therefore my favourite driver Y would beat him", which alot of people seem to have as their sole argument.

Vettel's percentage is impressive to be fair.

Statistics can be made to show all sorts of things for instance the score in 2012 was Hamilton 11 - 9 Button so yet again confirms the closeness of the 2 drivers over the season

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 2:19 pm 
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mds wrote:
jammin78 wrote:
Rosberg beat Schumacher three times. Rosberg is the best F1 driver in history. :S


But Webber beat Rosberg, so surely Vettel is the best :)

But Di Resta beat Vettel back in junior series...
But Sutil AND Hulkenberg beat Di Resta...

Ah, it's this old cycle again.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 2:23 pm 
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Alienturnedhuman wrote:
takagipower wrote:
We can attempt to answer this question with some empirical data.
Alonso and Vettel have never been teammates, so we can't really directly compare them. However if we take their head-to-head statistics against previous teammates and derive a heirarchy of driver performance:

Alonso? Probably not, based on head-to-head statistics:
Image

Now this is based on how many times a driver finishes higher than his teammate, not points (since points system has changed it would be difficult to compare points).
I've also excluded races where both drivers dnf or one driver doesn't even start a race.

I also intentionally left out Massa from the chart since Alonso and Massa were not teammates until after Massa's accident (which Felipe never really recovered from).

Except this isn't really empirical data. For a start there is not a big enough sample and the conditions varied each time. It would be like conducting a scientific experiment using different beakers, bunsen burners and atmospheric pressures each time.

Webber is not the same driver he was when he partnered Heidfeld, they were in a different team with a different working relationship, there was a totally different set of technical and sporting regulations. Kubica beat Petrov 16-2 in Petrov's rookie season, chances are Heikki would have managed a much better margin against him if this had been Petrov's first season in the sport. This whole system of measuring Driver A against Driver B in Team X, Driver B against Driver C in Team Y and then being able to determined Driver A against Driver C in Team Z does not work.

For example: Hamilton beat Alonso as team mates. Button beat Hamilton as team mates. Fisichella beat Button as team mates. Alonso beat Fisichella as team mates. So who is better, Button or Alonso? Button, obviously, because Button beat Hamilton and Hamilton beat Alonso. But wait, no, it's Alonso. Because Alonso beat Fisichella and Fisichella beat Button.

You cannot compare like this. As drivers age they gain experience but loose peak fitness. Technical regulations change each year changing the optimal driver style. Different team manage their drivers different and the working environment affects the driver's performance.

FINALLY someone points out the flawed logic in teammate comparisons.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 2:30 pm 
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lamo wrote:
Indeed, Alonso started very well but from Monaco onwards after Lewis' outburst over status their relative pace changed somewhat. Highlighted in race results and qualifying. Overall front row starts is is equal 12-11, but Alonso dominated Hamilton in the first 5 races then Lewis had the upper hand all season.

Qualifying.

Alonso:
First 8 races, Alonso on the front row in 7/8
Last 10 races, Alonso on the front row 4/10

Hamilton
First 8 races, Hamilton on the front row in 4/8
Last 10 races, Alonso on the front row 8/10

You can turn the stats in favour of either side.

"Alonso beat Hamilton 10-7 on track therefore I think he was better."
See?

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 2:33 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
I don't think Red Bull would even think about stooping that low

Red Bull blatantly take advantage of the car design rules. Ferrari blatantly take advantage of the racing rules. They cancel each other out in my book. One is as low as the other.

(Here's the secret - every single team out there will stoop as low as they can get away with)

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 2:49 pm 
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mcdo wrote:
pokerman wrote:
I don't think Red Bull would even think about stooping that low

Red Bull blatantly take advantage of the car design rules. Ferrari blatantly take advantage of the racing rules. They cancel each other out in my book. One is as low as the other.

(Here's the secret - every single team out there will stoop as low as they can get away with)

There's low and there's low

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 2:54 pm 
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jammin78 wrote:
mds wrote:
jammin78 wrote:
Rosberg beat Schumacher three times. Rosberg is the best F1 driver in history. :S


But Webber beat Rosberg, so surely Vettel is the best :)

But Di Resta beat Vettel back in junior series...
But Sutil AND Hulkenberg beat Di Resta...

Ah, it's this old cycle again.


Nah, pre-F1 doesn't count :p


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 2:57 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
mcdo wrote:
pokerman wrote:
I don't think Red Bull would even think about stooping that low

Red Bull blatantly take advantage of the car design rules. Ferrari blatantly take advantage of the racing rules. They cancel each other out in my book. One is as low as the other.

(Here's the secret - every single team out there will stoop as low as they can get away with)

There's low and there's low



There is Legal and Illegal ;)

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 3:03 pm 
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Johnston wrote:
pokerman wrote:
mcdo wrote:
pokerman wrote:
I don't think Red Bull would even think about stooping that low

Red Bull blatantly take advantage of the car design rules. Ferrari blatantly take advantage of the racing rules. They cancel each other out in my book. One is as low as the other.

(Here's the secret - every single team out there will stoop as low as they can get away with)

There's low and there's low



There is Legal and Illegal ;)

:thumbup:

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 3:28 pm 
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mds wrote:
jammin78 wrote:
mds wrote:
jammin78 wrote:
Rosberg beat Schumacher three times. Rosberg is the best F1 driver in history. :S


But Webber beat Rosberg, so surely Vettel is the best :)

But Di Resta beat Vettel back in junior series...
But Sutil AND Hulkenberg beat Di Resta...

Ah, it's this old cycle again.


Nah, pre-F1 doesn't count :p

Damn, there's Di Resta's hopes of ever being the best scuppered, poor guy. Looks like Vettel is the best driver to ever take part in F1.
But wait! Vettel was beaten in 5/7 rounds by Liuzzi when he joined Toro Rosso in 2007... does that mean Liuzzi is the best?

BUT!!! In the first half of 2007, at least one of the toro rosso's finished 5 times, and Scott Speed was ahead of Liuzzi on three of those occasions. FFS, is Speed the best F1 driver ever? Ashley will be very happy...

...

Until it becomes apparent Liuzzi beat Scott Speed 10 - 8 in 2006. Which puts us in an endless cycle of who's better, Speed or Liuzzi. Who'd of thought it?

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 3:59 pm 
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jammin78 wrote:
mds wrote:
jammin78 wrote:
mds wrote:
jammin78 wrote:
Rosberg beat Schumacher three times. Rosberg is the best F1 driver in history. :S


But Webber beat Rosberg, so surely Vettel is the best :)

But Di Resta beat Vettel back in junior series...
But Sutil AND Hulkenberg beat Di Resta...

Ah, it's this old cycle again.


Nah, pre-F1 doesn't count :p

Damn, there's Di Resta's hopes of ever being the best scuppered, poor guy. Looks like Vettel is the best driver to ever take part in F1.
But wait! Vettel was beaten in 5/7 rounds by Liuzzi when he joined Toro Rosso in 2007... does that mean Liuzzi is the best?

BUT!!! In the first half of 2007, at least one of the toro rosso's finished 5 times, and Scott Speed was ahead of Liuzzi on three of those occasions. FFS, is Speed the best F1 driver ever? Ashley will be very happy...

...

Until it becomes apparent Liuzzi beat Scott Speed 10 - 8 in 2006. Which puts us in an endless cycle of who's better, Speed or Liuzzi. Who'd of thought it?

But Sutil beat Liuzzi.

But Fisichella beat Sutil.

But Alonso beat Fisichella.

Oh no, it's happened again.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 5:11 pm 
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Speed is better than everyone.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 6:31 pm 
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I don't really think Alonso can beat Vettel.

I'd say Button, Kimi and Hamilton could. with Hamilton the likely bet due to his good qualifying.


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 7:47 pm 
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aryaputhra wrote:
Covalent wrote:
aryaputhra wrote:
Which drivers? In no certain order:

1. Lewis Hamilton
2. Nico Hulkenberg
3. Jules Bianchi (there's a gut-feeling about this guy).

Lewis is of course a real possibility, but what on earth makes you believe two drivers that have won nothing in F1 (the latter one hasn't even participated in a single race yet!) could take on the 3 title champ who's been driving for the team for years??


Hulk beat Hamilton in Brazil with an underperforming FI. Sure he wrote him off but that was a rookie mistake. And if you can take the hypothesis that Hamilton can beat Vettel then surely Hulk too can beat Vettel.

Why Bianchi? Like I said, a "gut-instinct" and I'm sticking to it. :twisted:


:lol: :thumbup:

I got the same "gut-instinct" about Hulk, think about it he raced Hamilton in a FI for the victory 8O Hulks brazil performance (before accident with hammy) was like a young Senna or Schumacher.

VETTEL BE AFRAID, BE VERY AFRAID. :lol:

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 7:51 pm 
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breathemyexhaust wrote:
Oh please, bourbon, stop with affecting to be in some community of privileged wisdom with Ashley and others of his persuasion. Every time you make some statement like such and such a supposed dictum will "fall by deaf ears" you are insulting whatever portion of the forum would dissent from Ashley's assertion had they registered it, which likelihood you are so enthusiastically doubtful of occurring. If that is your intention, by all means be my guest as I don't at all believe that a forum should be a place of civility as the mods and many of our Kumbaya posters would have it.

By the way Ashley, it was about time for an avatar change. Of course, discerning readers would be able to ascribe any of your posts to the author proper without that or any identifying features other than the quirks of veiled partiality which are your writing trade. Notice how he overextended himself with calling out Hamilton's post-2007 championship place record, following on that to state that Hamilton was an eschewed article as far as the collective pocketbooks of the f1 garages bar Mercedes' are concerned and that this was a direct index of the esteem in which he is held by the various team principals. Then with the abruptness of cowardice or the good hearing bourbon wishes for all our constituency (as a cowing argument was being leveled at him loud and clear) he, a person yet fairly on the attack, proceeded to back-peddle, after the most modest of factual rebuttals by lamo and others (citing the place finishes of senna and Prost in the 80s among other things) into stammering (figuratively) that 'hey that was a different time and place, things don't translate la di da di da' to save his dignity.
The funny thing is, and forgive this digression, that him and others of his ilk (I refer to mcnader, johnston and so on) are quick to trot out the newly furbished point aggregate argument vis-a-vis Jenson and Lewis without asking themselves a couple of very simple questions whose answers would have brought them a measure of perspective in the midst of their polemical zeal. How many of the frequenters of this forum can name, off the top of their head, how many race wins or pole positions Michael Schumacher has or for that matter those of any other formula one drivers? Now how many of these same people can recall how many career points the drivers in question have totaled? Though this is hardly common knowledge I myself know Schumacher holds 91 wins and 68 poles, Vettel 26 and 36, Alonso, 30 and 22, and so forth, but I couldn't offer how many points any of them have tallied if it meant my life. The first number (of capable individuals) frankly dwarfs the latter. When Schumacher broke down at that televised press conference was it because he had passed Senna's record for points? No? I thought not. Now why is that? Because points is the flimsiest, least permanent, least translatable, and least comparative measure in f1. Can f1 drivers place points on their household mantle top and shine them for the occasional visit by the in-laws, pawn them for money when they are hard by like Bjorn Borg almost did with his Wimbledon trophies some years past? When you are trying to quickly establish the caliber of an f1 driver to a motorsport amateur do you say "check it out, so-and-so accumulated 1000 points throughout their racing career!' there is no immediate impact to such a statement. But to say that "so and so had 20 or so race wins" helps to quickly locate them in the pantheon for the auditor.
And, this is a more temperamental matter and so I understand completely when many thinking posters diverge from me on the matter but podiums are in a way a semi-ignominious statistic to cite in pride. One of the things I admire about Hamilton is that of course he wants and is slowly modifying his racing approach to collect as many podiums as possible when nothing better is competitively achievable but deep down he looks on them with the kind of wry attitude that implies a sort of ethos of self-reproach on earning them reasoning 'if I was good enough to secure a third or second place position then I was good enough to win the race and should have even by actively courting a completely penurious outcome by thoroughgoing efforts to get an ultimate victory; only if I never was in with an opportunity should I be content with whatever place I could salvage; another one of these in hand is nothing to smile about'. But you get the sense that Button puts an inordinate amount of pride and stock in the acquisition of mere podiums, the psychology of an also-ran and while he isn't one himself a mentality to which I feel Alonso has fallen prey as of late and sadly to his detriment. Say what you want about Vettel but he does understand this is a winners league not a playing the percentages league. In basically only a fifth of the season he turned his championship chances around by getting WINS. Who won the championship this year? The person with the most wins. The championship as we've come to understand it for the last 20-plus years asks a very straightforward thing of any aspirant. You generally have to win at least 4 or 5 races and then mix it up properly for the rest of the season. When, the styled arch-cerebral Prost was tussling with senna he took care to usually win five or six races on the year. But see Alonso talking about maximizing his points and thinking he can hold on with a three win season when a truly maximizing approach hunts for WINS. If I was his coach I would almost tell him not to directly think about the championship at all but to get back to the level of expectation he had with Renault and even McLaren. I actually think that counter to prevailing opinion on the subject spending too much time in inadequate and midfield cars (which is what Alonso has been doing for most of his post-McLaren career) works to dull your self-expectation such that at critical junctures when you are positioned to take a win you are less capable of doing so simply by dint of the prospect no longer obtaining in one's mind as a thing that MUST for one's sense of self-respect be accomplished. If Alonso can even just get five wins next year I'm pretty sure the rest of it will take care of itself, even if Vettel is able to win seven.
So, to bring my thread back to the points aggregate argument, if button partisans wanted to land a blow they would really have to summon statistics regarding championships and wins and poles none of which flatter their picked man. What sort of real racer has less poles than years he has been in f1, with every year from 2009 to now certainly being paired with a car capable of them? To say that speed isn't the only thing that makes a great racer is merely true, and vexingly banal being a known truth to us all and so not worthy of being uttered to a community of one's peers. But to act like speed isn't a primary component, amounting almost to a majority of what is required is disingenuous. Trying to elevate Button (and current Kimi, too) to the status of the f1 triumvirate does him a disservice.
To unnerve Vettel you have to be able to do two things consistently and have the second one follow off the first: Be able to outqualify him or near him, and be able to snatch a victory from him on equal ground or put him in the shade on equal ground (sorry Mark but that disqualifies you well... off the Mark! ooh how it tickles me when a pun falls in my lap). A race like Korea shows how useless a Webber not on one of his pet tracks can be at parlaying a qualifying advantage (albeit a slim one) into a race advantage over his teammate. He ends up 8 seconds behind Vettel there from pole whereas Vettel puts him 13 behind in India in a contrasting position. Deep down Vettel and we all know that Hamilton is pretty much the only one on the grid that Vettel can put in a good lap against in qualifying and still be beaten for pole and vice versa. And if Singapore had played itself out to the end without the retirement I think we would have seen Hamilton maintain his lead on Vettel to the flag, an eventuality very suggestive to interpretation when brought together with what did actually happen in Austin. Again and again over the years we have seen Hamilton gain a distinct type of win over the Red Bulls. I guess you could call it a win for bragging rights or a calling card win, a species that intrinsically has nothing perhaps to recommend itself but one that does I think carry psychological consequences. A species that Button is peculiarly lacking in.
Almost all of Button's wins seem like the consequence of keeping his nose clean from some general dust up or brouhaha that incapacitates the greater part of the grid and never of a forcible wresting of victory from his rivals haply with the inclusion of an on track pass. Something is terribly wrong when the guy has driven a front running car for three years and had his first dry win in Spa. His specialty isn't even in wet driving per se but at 'tweenng', my word for tip toeing slicks on wet road till the track gets too wet not to switch to inters at which the true wet drivers assert themselves.
We think of Vettel as basically a qualifying and pole to flag monster. But the pressure of delivering against Hamilton in Q seemed to have him faltering at Singapore when he had shined in all the run-up sessions. A pole to flag triumph was foiled at Canada and Austin. In Germany 2011 Hamilton basically rained on the homecoming and hopeful home-win of the new champion. In China 2011 he again won a close quarters contest with Vettel. Meanwhile for Button, Brazil 2012 was a wash as far as the possibility of some meaningful competition with Vettel was concerned. In Belgium, Vettel didn't make q3 and so was too far away for them to come into competitive conflict. In Australia the performance difference between the McLaren and the Red Bull decided things too much at that stage in the game. In Japan 2011, however much losing out came to rankle Vettel (going by his admission in the press lead-up to the 2012 race he had already all but sewn up the championship (only needed a point I believe) which changed the nature of his driving. In Singapore 2012 I thought we were provided with a little-remembered situation from which to judge of Button's mettle in contesting things with Vettel. After Hamilton's retirement Button got to where he was basically breathing down Vettel's neck and then, whether it was through a failure of desire and derring-do as I incline to think, or some less damning reason more sympathetic spectators would care to supply he basically gave up the chase and resigned himself to second. Even when others win a grand prix in which Vettel happened to participate rarely are the narratives of those races as personal in the nature of their competitive involvement with Vettel as they are with a fair many of Hamilton's. And strange enough while the championship was touted as a contest between Vettel and Alonso, which it literally was, they too had little meaningful competition on track this year. They could have almost been racing at different tracks, so compartmentalized from each others' were their races at each venue—a lot of this being due to the performance gap of the cars. Perez in Malaysia alone had more significant on track competition with Alonso then Vettel dd. Now the thing I'm talking about is an affair of very tenuous sensations and perceptions but I can't help but delude myself that certain other people harbor a similar take on events and would welcome their contributions of opinion. I think when historians look back on this era of f1 and try to characterize the nature of the contest, and the players, Hamilton will play a more considerable role than he currently does though if he never sees his way through his coming Mercedes years to the holding of another championship it may only be the role of inspired occasional foil (note how I didn't say occasional inspired foil).


To conclude with my dressing down of a certain someone: When people ask Ashley to enumerate the driving errors that Hamilton made during the 2012 season he offers none but opts for some general comment to the effect of 'well everyone had misfortunes befall them etc. etc. but some persons 'namely my boy, wink wink' get the job done anyway'--a bald evasion. He then tries to diffuse the opposition he had provoked in making the extent of some of his true feelings clearer earlier by finally centering his reservations with Hamilton on an area that is strictly outside of his functions as a driver. To finally have to rest his criticism of Hamilton on a calling into-question of his administrative capacities is a duck and a defeat.


Now this ... Is genius 👏


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 9:12 pm 
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Simon Rennie is leaving Lotus to become Mark's race engineer. I can't help but hope this means I'll finally get my wish, that Kimi will replace Mark next year. You guys might get to find out if Kimi can beat Seb, as teammates :twisted: . Ciaron Pilbeam is headed to Lotus to be chief of engineering. Swapsies. I assume Mark Slade will continue on for Kimi.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 9:53 pm 
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ashley313 wrote:
Simon Rennie is leaving Lotus to become Mark's race engineer. I can't help but hope this means I'll finally get my wish, that Kimi will replace Mark next year. You guys might get to find out if Kimi can beat Seb, as teammates :twisted: . Ciaron Pilbeam is headed to Lotus to be chief of engineering. Swapsies. I assume Mark Slade will continue on for Kimi.

Kimi & Vettel in the same team would give me both sweet dreams and nightmares at the same time. :?


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 9:57 pm 
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RaggedMan wrote:
ashley313 wrote:
Simon Rennie is leaving Lotus to become Mark's race engineer. I can't help but hope this means I'll finally get my wish, that Kimi will replace Mark next year. You guys might get to find out if Kimi can beat Seb, as teammates :twisted: . Ciaron Pilbeam is headed to Lotus to be chief of engineering. Swapsies. I assume Mark Slade will continue on for Kimi.

Kimi & Vettel in the same team would give me both sweet dreams and nightmares at the same time. :?

I'd be watching every race with an angel on one shoulder and the devil on the other. And they'd both have wings.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 10:05 pm 
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ashley313 wrote:
Simon Rennie is leaving Lotus to become Mark's race engineer. I can't help but hope this means I'll finally get my wish, that Kimi will replace Mark next year. You guys might get to find out if Kimi can beat Seb, as teammates :twisted: . Ciaron Pilbeam is headed to Lotus to be chief of engineering. Swapsies. I assume Mark Slade will continue on for Kimi.


Would love to see Kimi at Red Bull I think it would be a great fit for him.


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 10:46 pm 
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SchumieRules wrote:
kai_ wrote:
SchumieRules wrote:
Johnston wrote:
Who knows. It's a bit like asking did Red bull ever think about giving webber agrid drop to help Seb.

Even if it did think about it whether they would do it. Remember Whitmarsh making comments about their Sponsors not liking them flying so close to the wind on Regs?

Can't remember his exact words but I got the impression that they need to be whiter than white these days.


That's an interesting point about the sponsors, I wonder if the Ferrari sponsors ever made a fuss over the Massa penalty

I've mused about that situation the other way around. How much did Santander's sponsorship play on Ferrari's mind when they were considering doing it?

Hmm, never thought of it this way.

Afterall, there's no bad publicity!

I meant more from the perspective of Ferrari showing Santander that they were doing everything possible to preserve Alonso's world championship chances or, more indirectly, knowing that in the end an Alonso WDC would keep their sponsors happy so they did everything to make that happen. But at the very least I don't think that sponsor reactions in Ferrari's case would have been negative.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 11:06 pm 
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lamo wrote:
What makes you say that, if you look at his results. He was strongest in the first 6 races and in qualifying. He out qualified Lewis 4-1 in the first 5 races, the 1 being when Alonsos car was damaged overnight in the pit lane.

The middle of the season was by far his worst period. He got it back together nearer the end, but I think Mclaren were up to something especially in the last 2 races because Lewis was too far ahead.


pokerman wrote:
I don't see that it took Alonso any time really to adapt to the Bridgestones

There's no evidence to support the fact that either Alonso or Hamilton are as limited as Webber in being able to adapt to what is required to get the maximum out of the Red Bull

I'll answer you both together because I'm essentially going to be saying the same thing.

I'm basing what I say on the analysis comments from expert commentators at the time, which I felt made a lot of sense. Alonso was used to and exceptionally good, probably the best, at extracting performance from the Michelin tyres, which (and I'm paraphrasing here) made for a very grippy front end of the car and required a particular type of turn in to 'bite'. The Renault he was driving in 05 and 06 was built around this concept. The Bridgestones were a totally different type of tyre requiring a totally different style.

Now yes statistically Alonso beat Hamilton, but watching him drive the car he didn't look comfortable. Moreover, I agreed with commentators who said that the gap between them was smaller than it should have been. This is a difficult part of the discussion to include because I suspect that now I'm going to be jumped on by Hamilton fans AND Alonso fans. Hamilton was a rookie, and a very impressive one at that, but that he was giving Alonso such a run for his money so early IMO fitted with the fact that Alonso was not extracting the maximum from the car. By the time Alonso had adapted the situation in the team was degenerating so it's very difficult to judge relative performance.

Regarding pokerman's comments about Alonso and Hamilton not being as limited as Webber, NO-ONE has said that they are so I'm not sure what point you're making. In fact it has been stated very clearly that they would adapt better than him.

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