planetf1.com

I see your point, but the underlined part applies only to the McLaren drivers, 4 DNFs in the case of Button and 6 in the case of Hamilton (if you count Grosjean too, then write down 8 DNFs to his name ). As for the other contenders, Vettel had 2 DNFs, Webber 3, Massa one and Raikkonen none.

I think that Ferrari's game plan for 2013 is exactly what it has always been, to win the WDC & the WCC

I agree, but Alonso was in control of his own destiny. He placed a higher value on what he wanted than on the strength and performance of the car he would be driving.



Well you are the one who made the argument that 'McLaren was stronger than Ferrari'. But as you concede here, for all practical purposes, Ferrari was stronger based on its greater reliability.

As to your other point, it's always car + driver, but in terms of presenting a challenging package: McLaren has been a challenger in 3 of the 5 years since Alonso left. Renault 0 of 2 during that period, with Alonso; and Ferrari 2 of 3 with Alonso. That is a total of 2 of 5 years where Alonso was able to challenge for the championship in tandem with the car he was driving. So on the whole, he'd of had a slightly better opportunity at Macca.



I agree. Turning down the opportunity was his choice, but no one would blame him for doing so.

_________________

Wonder what they're up to with the exhausts, they're talking about being worried about a new solution that's not fully tested. Sounds like something new is going to show up this week and potentially make or break the test.

If Alonso hadn't been wrecked in Belgium or Japan he would be WDC for 2012 that is easy to determine. I understand you can't use what if's in racing however your point about Vettel in an average car allows my what if scenario. So what do you say about unusual circumstances that hurt Alonso?? Reliability has been a Ferrari advantage in the past 5 or 6 years way better than any other team so that is not unusual.

_________________
One.
The best song ever written....thanks Bono
I am the Number 1Tifosi

He hasn't "been" wrecked in Japan, that's one thing. That was a racing incident and Kimi certainly doesn't have to take the blame for it.

The point being he had a DNF that one could argue either a racing incident or a mistake by KImmi either way it was a DNF for reasons other than mechanical.

_________________
One.
The best song ever written....thanks Bono
I am the Number 1Tifosi

FTFY.
And no, I don't quite agree. I'll give you Spa, but not Suzuka.

And even then, others have lost points too where the fault wasn't theirs.

First off, and this mantra has been beaten to death, is that it's still testing time and no one will know what the true pace of any car will be until Melbourne.

Any athlete or professional sporting team, be it soccer or bicycling or Formula One, play on their strengths and work at eliminating their weaknesses. For the last three years Red Bull were down on power and top end speed, but strong on cornering. They didn't try to beat others in high speed, but in cornering.

And it's the same with Ferrari. Even though we will not know if the car is a dog or winner at Melbourne, there are some things we do know about Ferrari based on last year's performance. Their car was just plain reliable, it was never an issue. Their pit stops, although not capturing the headlines, were almost always trouble-free and without drama. Their qualifying and race strategies were almost impeccable. And of course, when they have to, they use team tactics. Alonso is a very calculating driver, and if he believes that taking a risk is required, he will. He took a lot of risks at Valencia, and in the end, it paid off.

Last year we saw other teams stumble and make errors. Botched pit stops, team mates making life hard for the other, all these little things have an effect on the outcome, while in 2012 Ferrari we almost flawless in their execution. Those are strengths they will retain, and use with effect against the other teams.

Who knows, maybe the Ferrari is good, maybe it does have higher tire degradation than the rest, but Ferrari will do what they did last year, continually define their shortcomings and improve.

I'm a bit worried about the analysis here: http://http://formulaoneanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/

The author seems to think the Ferrari are struggling with degradation although this may be degradation brought on by cold temperatures rather than warm temperatures.

Nice to see Alonso with the fastest adjusted time though!

Ferrari hasn't struggled with degradation since the late 90s. In recent history, they've had more trouble with tyre warm up.

Except for last year, when they had solved the warm-up issue at the expense of increased degradation. Remember Alonso losing about 7 places in the last lap of Canada? Also a few in another race.

Canada was due to incorrect strategy. The same thing would have happened to Hamilton and Vettel had they not pitted.

There were tyre degree worries for Ferrari in last years pre season tests, but come the first races I don't think their deg was particularly bad compared to the others. By the end of the season the tyre warm up issues started to reoccur.

Not once did I do that. I said McLaren wasn't the strongest, I didn't say they were worse than Ferrari. To be the strongest these days you have to beat Red Bull. The last 3 years unless you were in a Red Bull it just didn't matter.

Basically '08 is the only real opportunity (of winning a WDC) Alonso passed up by leaving McLaren. Could he have made some better choices ? Yes. But that's true for for most drivers.

Anyway, as his fan I don't rue those choices much at all. I mean whatever he did Vettel would still be winning in his Red Bull. I don't consider his turning down Red bull a bad decision as I myself thought it to be a ridiculous idea at the time. But he is still considered by most the best driver in F1 today and I really enjoy that.

_________________

You can see by this graph here that the Ferrari appears to have a higher degree of tire degradation.



Why do some of you guys listen to the media pundits when you have the same data available and can think for yourself?

Domenicalli said he would be very surprised if Ferrari are the fastest car in Australia. He says they aim to be close to the fastest cars.

Not too encouraging and seems like another year of playing catchup from the first race.

Yes thats true but that wasn't the point you made originally. You argued that the reason why Alonso was there at all for the WDC was because of unusual circumstances so just trying to show where you may be a little off in your assessment

_________________
One.
The best song ever written....thanks Bono
I am the Number 1Tifosi

Pure data doesn't tell us the whole story. Journalist who actually were there, may try to look at tires, which tires were used, how car goes around corners etc. Beside that we don't know what Ferrari tested and we don't fuel loads, track conditions, temperature etc. The data sample you have shown to us is very tiny anyway.

_________________
Renault!

2012 Planet F1 Prediction Competition Champion

It wasn't me who said that, it was Balibari. But I do agree with him, he drove a fantastic season (although with some drop-off at the end) but (and quoting) "it still took unusual circumstances outside Maranello's control to give him the chance he had". And yes, unfortunately for him, there was also a factor outside Maranello's control that took the possible title away. Very seldomly you have only good luck and no bad luck at all.

And even then, others have lost points too where the fault wasn't theirs.[/quote]

Yes thats true but that wasn't the point you made originally. You argued that the reason why Alonso was there at all for the WDC was because of unusual circumstances so just trying to show where you may be a little off in your assessment[/quote]

It wasn't me who said that, it was Balibari. But I do agree with him, he drove a fantastic season (although with some drop-off at the end) but (and quoting) "it still took unusual circumstances outside Maranello's control to give him the chance he had". And yes, unfortunately for him, there was also a factor outside Maranello's control that took the possible title away. Very seldomly you have only good luck and no bad luck at all.[/quote]


apologies for the error but indeed he did have bad luck, let me explain. The two offs we discussed already plus the dismal driving of Massa for sure played a part in this bad luck. Massa if he had any good drives from race 1 to race 14 Alonso would have run away with the WDC, so one can argue that Massa was a bad luck for Alonso. Look at Webber compared to Vettel, Hamilton compared to Button not a huge difference in points as compared to Massa/Alonso t just shows anything can be used for this argument.

_________________
One.
The best song ever written....thanks Bono
I am the Number 1Tifosi

Some. And he had good luck too.
I understand your reasoning, but I don't think it's valid to take just one moment of bad luck and say without it he would have been champion, when all in all without the good luck he had he would never have been in contention for the title.

This is just your assumption. Vettel failed to get into q3 few times last year. Just because Red Bull had edge during last 5 races, it doesn't mean they had the best car in 2012. We have no idea about this year either.[/quote]

Do you think the 2013 Red Bull will be based on their car from early last season, or late last season?

As was said before, they will take a hit in qualification due to the specific rule changes.
Throw in the potential of the Mclaren that will likely be huge, since they threw last year's car concept away despite having the fastest car of 2012, and it's very possible that the RB's won't be storming to poles anymore. And since they rely on being in the front, that would mean a very difficult season.

Yes this is my point. You can't take one "if or "then" as was done in the original quote you commented on. So I think we are agreeing now which makes sense. Alonso drove great, Ferrari gave him a car that was average at best but bullet proof reliability wise, had a bad teammate and a few Offs. overall a great year that one can conclude the Massa problem and the reliability can be the 2 big sway factors, however the reliability of Ferrari has been well documented over the last 5-10 years.

_________________
One.
The best song ever written....thanks Bono
I am the Number 1Tifosi

About Massa: well, on the other hand, Massa doesn't take points away from Alonso either. Whereas both Webber and Button have taken points from Vettel and Hamilton respectively.
Also, you could say Ferrari have broken Massa's and thus have added to Massa's bad performances. But that's a bit speculative.

McLaren was also quite fast car at the end of season. 2012 car was also based on highly successful 2011 model, but rules were changed in 2012. They are changed ahead of 2013 season too.

_________________
Renault!

2012 Planet F1 Prediction Competition Champion

Hardly broken him prob the opposite as he did perform well at the end of the season.

Hmmm.

Alonso's tyres went off massively at Silverstone which gave Webber the win; his tyres went off faster than Maldonado's at Barcelona which cost him a shot at the win and there was the strategy balls up at Canada that ultimately cost Alonso the title.

At silverstone it wasn't the tyre going off it was that the Ferrari was no good on that compound tyre. Maybe it was heating up issues I don't know. But it wasn't because it went off.

He regained something towards the end of the season - haven't seen him perform like that in a great while.
But I do think it has been hard for Massa to keep confidence. I mean, among some other stuff, China 2010 must have been pretty hard for Massa.