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PostPosted: Sat Jun 11, 2016 4:43 pm 
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Black_Flag_11 wrote:
Canada
1. Pole: Hamilton
2. Race winner: Vettel
3. Fastest lap: Verstappen
4. Quali surprise: Hulkenberg
5. Quali victim: Magnussen
6. Overachiever race: Hulkenberg
7. Underperformer race: Massa
8. First Lap hero: Alonso
9. First lap zero: Palmer
10. First man out: Kvyat
11. Safety cars: 2
12. Race leaders: 3
13. Classified: 17

Just a quick warning: if Magnussen does not take part in qualifying at all, he will not be eligible for quali victim (or surprise).

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Pick 10 2016: 2nd [3 wins]. 2017: 2nd [1 win].
F1 Oracle 2016: 3rd [4 wins]. 2017: 1st [6 wins].
Top Three 2016: 14th. 2017: 1st [5 wins] + Cup.
Group Pick'em 2016: 3rd [4 wins]. 2017: 1st [6 wins].


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 11, 2016 4:46 pm 
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Canadian Grand Prix 2016

1. Pole: Lewis Hamilton
2. Race winner: Lewis Hamilton
3. Fastest lap: Sebastian Vettel
4. Quali surprise: Carlos Sainz Jnr
5. Quali victim: Romain Grosjean
6. Overachiever race: Nico Hulkenberg
7. Underperformer race: Romain Grosjean
8. First Lap hero: Fernando Alonso
9. First lap zero: Daniil Kvyat
10. First man out: Felipe Nasr
11. Safety cars: 0
12. Race leaders: 2
13. Classified: 19

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Pick 10|'18: /'17: P8{3P}/'16: P12{2P}/'14: P24{2P}
Top 3|'18: /'17: P4{8W},Team: P3 /'16: P8{1W},Team: P2
Group Pick'em|'17: P6{4P}/'16: P6{5P}
F1 Oracle|'18: /'17: P3{3W}/'16: P2{4W}


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 11, 2016 4:57 pm 
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TypingChicane wrote:
Black_Flag_11 wrote:
Canada
1. Pole: Hamilton
2. Race winner: Vettel
3. Fastest lap: Verstappen
4. Quali surprise: Hulkenberg
5. Quali victim: Magnussen
6. Overachiever race: Hulkenberg
7. Underperformer race: Massa
8. First Lap hero: Alonso
9. First lap zero: Palmer
10. First man out: Kvyat
11. Safety cars: 2
12. Race leaders: 3
13. Classified: 17

Just a quick warning: if Magnussen does not take part in qualifying at all, he will not be eligible for quali victim (or surprise).

I was just about to ask as I saw on Twitter he won't be taking part!

I'll change quali victim to Kvyat then.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 13, 2016 3:19 pm 
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Montreal, Canada

The foreshadowed
- All ten players predicted the correct pole sitter in Lewis Hamilton;
- and the correct race overachiever in Nico Hülkenberg (+6 places).
- Eight participants were right in expecting a Hamilton win;
- Eight again chose the right number of race leaders (2).
- Seven foresaw Hülkenberg as the quali surprise (+5 places).

The unfathomables
There were only two questions this round that no one answered correctly:
- Carlos Sainz was the first lap hero (+4 places);
- Nico Rosberg the first lap zero (-8 places).

Standout predictions of the weekend
- Only robins13 had the inspiration to predict Daniel Ricciardo as the race underperformer (Nico Rosberg would have been a correct answer too).
- Jenson's Understeer must have had inside information as Jenson Button was the first man out.

The race win goes to Fountoukos13 with a season record score of 8 correct answers. :thumbup: (We will crack that bonus threshold someday). It's Fountoukos13’s third win of the season already!

Besides Fountoukos13, leader Jenson’s Understeer had another good weekend. So we now have a clear top 2, with a 4 points difference between the two front runners.

For the rest, us mortals, there is the consolation that there’s two thirds of the season left to play for. If Jenson’s Understeer and Fountoukos13 can manufacture such leads in 7 races, then surely others can annul that lead in twice the number of races?

Image
Image

And now that one third of the F1 season is done, here is a little extra insight in how the points are distributed over the questions.

Image

Some observations:
- Both pole and the number of safety cars appear to be the easiest questions (37 correct answers).
- Race underperformer (5), fastest lap, quali victim and first lap zero (all 6) are very unpredictable.
- Jenson’s Understeer scores well across the board; there is just one '0' on the board left (quali victim).
- Jenson’s Understeer also holds the current record for correct answers to a question (6x quali surprise).

Next up is Baku, Azerbeidjan. The WDC ranking now:
1.Rosberg 2.Hamilton 3.Vettel 4.Ricciardo 5.Räikkönen 6.Verstappen 7.Bottas 8.Massa 9.Perez 10.Kvyat 11.Grosjean 12. Alonso 13.Hülkenberg 14.Sainz 15.Magnussen 16.Button 17.Vandoorne 18.Gutierrez 19.Palmer 20.Ericsson 21.Wehrlein 22.Nasr 23.Haryanto

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PF1 forum games
Pick 10 2016: 2nd [3 wins]. 2017: 2nd [1 win].
F1 Oracle 2016: 3rd [4 wins]. 2017: 1st [6 wins].
Top Three 2016: 14th. 2017: 1st [5 wins] + Cup.
Group Pick'em 2016: 3rd [4 wins]. 2017: 1st [6 wins].


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 13, 2016 4:23 pm 
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The breakdown of how we've scored all our points is awesomely informative. I didn't realise I'd scored points in every category with the exception of one. Kind of surprised that there have only been six correct fastest lap predictions all season. I know China and Spain had really unpredictable fastest lap setters, but the rest of the races (perhaps excluding Australia) seem quite predictable. Not at all surprised to see low scores in first lap hero/zero, although apparently I ought to start betting on the first retirement in each race!

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Cheering for: Leclerc, Hulkenberg, Vandoorne
Pick 10 | 1 win, 10 podiums
2017: 6th | 2016: 8th | 2015: 2nd | 2014: 15th | 2013: 17th | 2012: 11th


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 13, 2016 5:12 pm 
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YEAH!! :D :D :D :D :D

Another win and a new record!! Still Jenson's Understeer is doing such a good job that i can't gain on him... :?

Seriously how can you guess the first man out???

Nice info Typing Chicane!! :thumbup: :thumbup:

Good to see that i'm at the top in 6 questions (3 of them without a tie)

I need to work on the questions about the poor results (Quali Victim, underperformer, first lap zero and first man out)

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Top 10 Competition
2016: 12th, Podiums: 2nd Great Britain

Top 3 Competition
2016: 5th, Wins in: Spain, 1st Great Britain

F1 Oracle 2016: 2nd, Wins in: Australia, Russia, Canada, Great Britain

Group Pick'em 6th, Podiums: 2nd Monaco


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 15, 2016 9:29 am 
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Baku:

1. Pole: Hamilton
2. Race winner: Hamilton
3. Fastest lap: Perez
4. Quali surprise: Hulkenberg
5. Quali victim: Alonsp
6. Overachiever race: Hulkenberg
7. Underperformer race: Alonso
8. First Lap hero: Verstappen
9. First lap zero: Raikonnen
10. First man out: Kvyat
11. Safety cars: 1
12. Race leaders: 2
13. Classified: 18

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Top Three Team Champions 2017 (With Jezza13)
Group Pick 'Em 2016 Champion


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 16, 2016 11:43 am 
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Baku:

1. Pole: Hamilton
2. Race winner: Hamilton
3. Fastest lap: Hamilton
4. Quali surprise: Hulkenberg
5. Quali victim: Grosjean
6. Overachiever race: Hulkenberg
7. Underperformer race: Alonso
8. First Lap hero: Sainz
9. First lap zero: Rosberg
10. First man out: Nasr
11. Safety cars: 2
12. Race leaders: 2
13. Classified: 16

_________________
NH#1: Quick Nick Heidfeld
NH#2: HULK SMASH

PF1 Pick 10 Podiums: 6 (2nd IND '11; 1st JPN '12; 1st MCO '13; 3rd DEU '16; 3rd USA '16, 3rd MEX '16)


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 16, 2016 4:04 pm 
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I feel like some of these predictions are going to start getting more and more unanimous as the season progresses...

1. Pole: Hamilton
2. Race winner: Hamilton
3. Fastest lap: Rosberg
4. Quali surprise: Hulkenberg
5. Quali victim: Alonso (so tempted to take a gamble on it being Ricciardo)
6. Overachiever race: Hulkenberg
7. Underperformer race: Ricciardo (I am going to take that gamble here, partly because I don't think Alonso gets to the end of the race and therefore would not be eligible for this category)
8. First Lap hero: Alonso
9. First lap zero: Ricciardo
10. First man out: Palmer
11. Safety cars: 1
12. Race leaders: 3
13. Classified: 17

_________________
Cheering for: Leclerc, Hulkenberg, Vandoorne
Pick 10 | 1 win, 10 podiums
2017: 6th | 2016: 8th | 2015: 2nd | 2014: 15th | 2013: 17th | 2012: 11th


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 16, 2016 4:18 pm 
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Jenson's Understeer wrote:
I feel like some of these predictions are going to start getting more and more unanimous as the season progresses...

If that's true, that would be a positive development for the competition leader...
I doubt if it's true though. I'll make a table for it one day.

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PF1 forum games
Pick 10 2016: 2nd [3 wins]. 2017: 2nd [1 win].
F1 Oracle 2016: 3rd [4 wins]. 2017: 1st [6 wins].
Top Three 2016: 14th. 2017: 1st [5 wins] + Cup.
Group Pick'em 2016: 3rd [4 wins]. 2017: 1st [6 wins].


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 16, 2016 4:26 pm 
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TypingChicane wrote:
Jenson's Understeer wrote:
I feel like some of these predictions are going to start getting more and more unanimous as the season progresses...

If that's true, that would be a positive development for the competition leader...
I doubt if it's true though. I'll make a table for it one day.


I don't intend to blow my lead in this like I did in the Top Three competition last year, that's for sure!

I do think that stuff like quali surprise/victim and under/overachiever will start getting quite obvious the longer the season goes on, though. The WDC will gradually level out and better mirror the pecking order so there will be less surprises compared to the WDC standings.

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Cheering for: Leclerc, Hulkenberg, Vandoorne
Pick 10 | 1 win, 10 podiums
2017: 6th | 2016: 8th | 2015: 2nd | 2014: 15th | 2013: 17th | 2012: 11th


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 16, 2016 5:38 pm 
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Jenson's Understeer wrote:
TypingChicane wrote:
Jenson's Understeer wrote:
I feel like some of these predictions are going to start getting more and more unanimous as the season progresses...

If that's true, that would be a positive development for the competition leader...
I doubt if it's true though. I'll make a table for it one day.


I don't intend to blow my lead in this like I did in the Top Three competition last year, that's for sure!

I do think that stuff like quali surprise/victim and under/overachiever will start getting quite obvious the longer the season goes on, though. The WDC will gradually level out and better mirror the pecking order so there will be less surprises compared to the WDC standings.

I see no reason the answers for quali victim and race underachiever would converge, because they are terribly unpredictable (5 and 6 correct answers out of 69 tries). There is usually some crash or mechanical failure that determines the outcome. I know people are often choosing the same names for these, based on the WDC ranking, but that doesn't seem to be the right approach looking at the results so far.

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PF1 forum games
Pick 10 2016: 2nd [3 wins]. 2017: 2nd [1 win].
F1 Oracle 2016: 3rd [4 wins]. 2017: 1st [6 wins].
Top Three 2016: 14th. 2017: 1st [5 wins] + Cup.
Group Pick'em 2016: 3rd [4 wins]. 2017: 1st [6 wins].


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 16, 2016 8:59 pm 
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TypingChicane wrote:
Jenson's Understeer wrote:
TypingChicane wrote:
Jenson's Understeer wrote:
I feel like some of these predictions are going to start getting more and more unanimous as the season progresses...

If that's true, that would be a positive development for the competition leader...
I doubt if it's true though. I'll make a table for it one day.


I don't intend to blow my lead in this like I did in the Top Three competition last year, that's for sure!

I do think that stuff like quali surprise/victim and under/overachiever will start getting quite obvious the longer the season goes on, though. The WDC will gradually level out and better mirror the pecking order so there will be less surprises compared to the WDC standings.

I see no reason the answers for quali victim and race underachiever would converge, because they are terribly unpredictable (5 and 6 correct answers out of 69 tries). There is usually some crash or mechanical failure that determines the outcome. I know people are often choosing the same names for these, based on the WDC ranking, but that doesn't seem to be the right approach looking at the results so far.

My gut feeling, without analysing all the data, is that those answers have become less easy to predict than they were after the first few races and will continue to be less easy to predict going forward. Towards the beginning, if somebody had got lucky -- or unlucky -- in one race, it meant that they would move substantially in the standings and that there was a good chance that driver would then wind up more where they were expected to the next time. The more points have been scored, the less effect any one bad or surprisingly good race will have on the overall standings, and if teams and drivers have sorted out to more or less where they should be on merit, it should be more difficult to guess at who might have a change of form rather than relying on who might have a return to form.

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Top Three: 5 wins, 18 podiums | 2016: 9th [6th] | 2017: 16th [6th] | 2018: -5th [-5th]
Pick 10: 1 win, 4 podiums | 2016: 22nd | 2017: 21st | 2018: 16th
Group Pick'em: 2 wins, 7 podiums | 2016: 14th | 2017: 10th | 2018: 10th


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 16, 2016 11:47 pm 
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Baku:

1. Pole: Hamilton
2. Race winner: Hamilton
3. Fastest lap: Vettel
4. Quali surprise: Hulkenberg
5. Quali victim: Grosjean
6. Overachiever race: Hulkenberg
7. Underperformer race: Kvyat
8. First Lap hero: Werhlein
9. First lap zero: Massa
10. First man out: Perez
11. Safety cars: 1
12. Race leaders: 3
13. Classified: 18

Edit i made some changes...

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Top 10 Competition
2016: 12th, Podiums: 2nd Great Britain

Top 3 Competition
2016: 5th, Wins in: Spain, 1st Great Britain

F1 Oracle 2016: 2nd, Wins in: Australia, Russia, Canada, Great Britain

Group Pick'em 6th, Podiums: 2nd Monaco


Last edited by Fountoukos13 on Fri Jun 17, 2016 5:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Fri Jun 17, 2016 3:00 am 
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Baku:

1. Pole: Hamilton
2. Race winner: Hamilton
3. Fastest lap: Vettel
4. Quali surprise: Sainz
5. Quali victim: Perez
6. Overachiever race: Sainz
7. Underperformer race: Verstappen
8. First Lap hero: Perez
9. First lap zero: Ricciardo
10. First man out: Palmer
11. Safety cars: 2
12. Race leaders: 3
13. Classified: 18


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 17, 2016 2:14 pm 
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Baku
1. Pole: Hamilton
2. Race winner: Hamilton
3. Fastest lap: Rosberg
4. Quali surprise: Hulkenberg
5. Quali victim: Kvyatt
6. Overachiever race: Hulkenberg
7. Under performer race: raikkonen
8. First Lap hero: Perez
9. First lap zero: Riccardo
10. First man out: palmer
11. Safety cars: 1
12. Race leaders: 2
13. Classified: 17

_________________
PF1 pick 10 2016: 7th (1 win, 4 podiums), 2017: 17th (3 podiums)
Awards: Sergio perez trophy & Podium specialist
PF1 pick 3 2015: constructors 2nd, singles 5th
Autosport Gp 2016/17 - 5th
F1 Oracle 2017: 2nd (6 wins), 2016:5th (2wins)


Last edited by Mayhem on Fri Jun 17, 2016 9:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Fri Jun 17, 2016 7:09 pm 
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Azerbaijan:

1. Pole: Hamilton
2. Race winner: Hamilton
3. Fastest lap: Hamilton
4. Quali surprise: Hulkenberg
5. Quali victim: Kvyat
6. Overachiever race: Hulkenberg
7. Underperformer race: Ricciardo
8. First lap hero: Wehrlein
9. First lap zero: Raikkonen
10. First man out: Gutierrez
11. Safety cars: 2
12. Race leaders: 2
13. Classified: 16

_________________
PF1 forum games
Pick 10 2016: 2nd [3 wins]. 2017: 2nd [1 win].
F1 Oracle 2016: 3rd [4 wins]. 2017: 1st [6 wins].
Top Three 2016: 14th. 2017: 1st [5 wins] + Cup.
Group Pick'em 2016: 3rd [4 wins]. 2017: 1st [6 wins].


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 17, 2016 9:39 pm 
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Azerbaijan
1. Pole: Lewis Hamilton
2. Race winner: Lewis Hamilton
3. Fastest lap: Nico Rosberg
4. Quali surprise: Carlos Sainz
5. Quali victim: Romain Grosjean
6. Overachiever race: Sergio Perez
7. Underperformer race: Daniil Kvyat
8. First Lap hero: Fernando Alonso
9. First lap zero: Felipe Massa
10. First man out: Esteban Gutierrez
11. Safety cars: 2
12. Race leaders: 2
13. Classified: 16

_________________
Top Three: 5 wins, 18 podiums | 2016: 9th [6th] | 2017: 16th [6th] | 2018: -5th [-5th]
Pick 10: 1 win, 4 podiums | 2016: 22nd | 2017: 21st | 2018: 16th
Group Pick'em: 2 wins, 7 podiums | 2016: 14th | 2017: 10th | 2018: 10th


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 18, 2016 11:39 am 
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Baku Grand Prix 2016

1. Pole: Lewis Hamilton
2. Race winner: Lewis Hamilton
3. Fastest lap: Lewis Hamilton
4. Quali surprise: Nico Hulkenberg
5. Quali victim: Kimi Raikkonen
6. Overachiever race: Nico Hulkenberg
7. Underperformer race: Fernando Alonso
8. First Lap hero: Carlos Sainz Jnr
9. First lap zero: Daniil Kvyat
10. First man out: Jolyon Palmer
11. Safety cars: 2
12. Race leaders: 2
13. Classified: 17

_________________
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Pick 10|'18: /'17: P8{3P}/'16: P12{2P}/'14: P24{2P}
Top 3|'18: /'17: P4{8W},Team: P3 /'16: P8{1W},Team: P2
Group Pick'em|'17: P6{4P}/'16: P6{5P}
F1 Oracle|'18: /'17: P3{3W}/'16: P2{4W}


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 18, 2016 12:31 pm 
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robins13 wrote:
Baku:

1. Pole: Hamilton
2. Race winner: Hamilton
3. Fastest lap: Vettel
4. Quali surprise: Sainz
5. Quali victim: Perez
6. Overachiever race: Sainz
7. Underperformer race: Verstappen
8. First Lap hero: Perez
9. First lap zero: Ricciardo
10. First man out: Palmer
11. Safety cars: 2
12. Race leaders: 3
13. Classified: 18

Editing before qualifying

1. Pole: Hamilton
2. Race winner: Hamilton
3. Fastest lap: Rosberg
4. Quali surprise: Hulkenberg
5. Quali victim: Massa
6. Overachiever race: Hulkenberg
7. Underperformer race: Verstappen
8. First Lap hero: Perez
9. First lap zero: Ricciardo
10. First man out: Palmer
11. Safety cars: 2
12. Race leaders: 2
13. Classified: 17

Quoting original picks just to see whether I regret the editing ;)


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 18, 2016 12:45 pm 
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Very nearly forgot about this!

Baku
1. Pole: Hamilton
2. Race winner: Hamilton
3. Fastest lap: Hamilton
4. Quali surprise: Hulkenberg
5. Quali victim: Grosjean
6. Overachiever race: Hulkenberg
7. Underperformer race: Verstappen
8. First Lap hero: Wehrlein
9. First lap zero: Kvyat
10. First man out: Kvyat
11. Safety cars: 2
12. Race leaders: 2
13. Classified: 16


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 7:37 pm 
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Baku, Azerbaijan

You would think that with massive surprises failing to happen in the race, we could see a good scoring Oracle round, but…

The foreshadowed
- Best predicted was Rosberg’s fastest lap, if only by four players.
- That’s it really…

The unfathomables
Baku saw a season record of eight questions that no one guessed correctly. I’m not even going to list them. Let me just say that Hamilton, Hulkenberg and multiple safety cars featured a lot in the answers.

Standout predictions of the weekend
In this absurdly low scoring round, the special mention must go to Remmirath who was the only one to predict Sergio Perez as the race overachiever (all others opted for his teammate).

The race win goes to Jenson’s Understeer (for the third time), Remmirath (second win) and Herb (a first!), all with 2 correct answers. :thumbup:

Consequently, the changes in the season standings are very marginal, as Jenson’s Understeer brings the lead on Fountoukos13 back to 5 points.

Image
Image

In two weeks’ time the Oracle visits Spielberg, Austria. The WDC ranking as of now:
1. Rosberg 2.Hamilton 3.Vettel 4.Räikkönen 5.Ricciardo 6.Verstappen 7.Bottas 8.Perez. 9.Massa 10.Kvyat 11.Grosjean 12.Hülkenberg 13.Alonso 14.Sainz 15.Magnussen 16.Button 17.Vandoorne 18.Gutierrez 19.Palmer 20.Ericsson 21.Nasr 22.Wehrlein 23.Haryanto.

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PF1 forum games
Pick 10 2016: 2nd [3 wins]. 2017: 2nd [1 win].
F1 Oracle 2016: 3rd [4 wins]. 2017: 1st [6 wins].
Top Three 2016: 14th. 2017: 1st [5 wins] + Cup.
Group Pick'em 2016: 3rd [4 wins]. 2017: 1st [6 wins].


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 8:00 pm 
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Wow a win. Er even if it was only worth 2 points and shared with 2 other people!

Hard round!

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PostPosted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 11:47 pm 
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Yeah, that ended up being quite a mix-up, but I'll take it! Things do seem to get mixed up in the predictions every time one of the Mercedes cars is out of position... :lol: Of course, nobody really knew what to expect from Azerbaijan, so let's see what happens when we go back to more familiar stomping grounds with Austria.

_________________
Top Three: 5 wins, 18 podiums | 2016: 9th [6th] | 2017: 16th [6th] | 2018: -5th [-5th]
Pick 10: 1 win, 4 podiums | 2016: 22nd | 2017: 21st | 2018: 16th
Group Pick'em: 2 wins, 7 podiums | 2016: 14th | 2017: 10th | 2018: 10th


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 20, 2016 1:50 am 
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Remmirath wrote:
Yeah, that ended up being quite a mix-up, but I'll take it! Things do seem to get mixed up in the predictions every time one of the Mercedes cars is out of position... :lol: Of course, nobody really knew what to expect from Azerbaijan, so let's see what happens when we go back to more familiar stomping grounds with Austria.


Sorry to be the one breaking up the party but Perez wasn't the race overachiever, it was Nasr.

22nd in the standings to 12th in the race.

Unless i have made a mistake...

_________________
Top 10 Competition
2016: 12th, Podiums: 2nd Great Britain

Top 3 Competition
2016: 5th, Wins in: Spain, 1st Great Britain

F1 Oracle 2016: 2nd, Wins in: Australia, Russia, Canada, Great Britain

Group Pick'em 6th, Podiums: 2nd Monaco


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 20, 2016 3:45 am 
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Fountoukos13 wrote:
Remmirath wrote:
Yeah, that ended up being quite a mix-up, but I'll take it! Things do seem to get mixed up in the predictions every time one of the Mercedes cars is out of position... :lol: Of course, nobody really knew what to expect from Azerbaijan, so let's see what happens when we go back to more familiar stomping grounds with Austria.


Sorry to be the one breaking up the party but Perez wasn't the race overachiever, it was Nasr.

22nd in the standings to 12th in the race.

Unless i have made a mistake...

One has to classified in top 10 too


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 20, 2016 7:35 am 
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robins13 wrote:
Fountoukos13 wrote:
Remmirath wrote:
Yeah, that ended up being quite a mix-up, but I'll take it! Things do seem to get mixed up in the predictions every time one of the Mercedes cars is out of position... :lol: Of course, nobody really knew what to expect from Azerbaijan, so let's see what happens when we go back to more familiar stomping grounds with Austria.


Sorry to be the one breaking up the party but Perez wasn't the race overachiever, it was Nasr.

22nd in the standings to 12th in the race.

Unless i have made a mistake...

One has to classified in top 10 too

Robins13 is correct: finishing in the points is necessary to be considered a race overachiever.

Quote:
6. Overachiever race [driver]
Driver who ends the race in the highest position, compared to his WDC ranking. Only drivers finishing the race in the top 10 (official result) are eligible. This is to avoid attrition to be the dominant factor. (A backmarker who finishes last will still finish the race higher than his WDC ranking if there are DNF’s.)

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 20, 2016 9:50 am 
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Two point victory? That's almost as fortunate as my 1 point for Perez - despite having attempted to change my prediction - in the Top Three game!

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 20, 2016 10:38 am 
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TypingChicane wrote:
robins13 wrote:
Fountoukos13 wrote:
Remmirath wrote:
Yeah, that ended up being quite a mix-up, but I'll take it! Things do seem to get mixed up in the predictions every time one of the Mercedes cars is out of position... :lol: Of course, nobody really knew what to expect from Azerbaijan, so let's see what happens when we go back to more familiar stomping grounds with Austria.


Sorry to be the one breaking up the party but Perez wasn't the race overachiever, it was Nasr.

22nd in the standings to 12th in the race.

Unless i have made a mistake...

One has to classified in top 10 too

Robins13 is correct: finishing in the points is necessary to be considered a race overachiever.

Quote:
6. Overachiever race [driver]
Driver who ends the race in the highest position, compared to his WDC ranking. Only drivers finishing the race in the top 10 (official result) are eligible. This is to avoid attrition to be the dominant factor. (A backmarker who finishes last will still finish the race higher than his WDC ranking if there are DNF’s.)


Oh sorry then. :blush:

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 20, 2016 6:04 pm 
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On a positive note in this low scoring round: Remmirath, Mayhem and robins13 all swept a 0 off their personal score board by correctly predicting the fastest lap for the first time this season.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 22, 2016 11:08 am 
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Fountoukos13 wrote:
Oh sorry then. :blush:

No worries. It's a good thing you all keep me on my toes.

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PostPosted: Sat Jun 25, 2016 8:57 am 
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Remmirath wrote:
TypingChicane wrote:
Jenson's Understeer wrote:
TypingChicane wrote:
Jenson's Understeer wrote:
I feel like some of these predictions are going to start getting more and more unanimous as the season progresses...

If that's true, that would be a positive development for the competition leader...
I doubt if it's true though. I'll make a table for it one day.


I don't intend to blow my lead in this like I did in the Top Three competition last year, that's for sure!

I do think that stuff like quali surprise/victim and under/overachiever will start getting quite obvious the longer the season goes on, though. The WDC will gradually level out and better mirror the pecking order so there will be less surprises compared to the WDC standings.

I see no reason the answers for quali victim and race underachiever would converge, because they are terribly unpredictable (5 and 6 correct answers out of 69 tries). There is usually some crash or mechanical failure that determines the outcome. I know people are often choosing the same names for these, based on the WDC ranking, but that doesn't seem to be the right approach looking at the results so far.

My gut feeling, without analysing all the data, is that those answers have become less easy to predict than they were after the first few races and will continue to be less easy to predict going forward. Towards the beginning, if somebody had got lucky -- or unlucky -- in one race, it meant that they would move substantially in the standings and that there was a good chance that driver would then wind up more where they were expected to the next time. The more points have been scored, the less effect any one bad or surprisingly good race will have on the overall standings, and if teams and drivers have sorted out to more or less where they should be on merit, it should be more difficult to guess at who might have a change of form rather than relying on who might have a return to form.


To shed some light on this issue (or not), here's the number of different answers per question for every GP.
The grey cells in the table mean that no one guessed the correct answer to that question.

Although we see a drop in the average number of different answers in Canada and Baku, it's a bit early for me to call this a trend right now.
Note: we had only 9 entries in Bahrayn instead of the usual 10, which affects the variance of answers for that GP.

Image

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 29, 2016 11:09 am 
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Austria

1. Pole: Hamilton
2. Race winner: Hamilton
3. Fastest lap: Rosberg
4. Quali surprise: Button
5. Quali victim: Grosjean
6. Overachiever race: Hulkenberg
7. Underperformer race: Massa
8. First Lap hero: Alonso
9. First lap zero: Kvyat
10. First man out: Magnussen
11. Safety cars: 1
12. Race leaders: 3
13. Classified: 18

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 11:14 am 
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Austria 2016

1. Pole: Rosberg
2. Race winner: Hamilton
3. Fastest lap: Rosberg
4. Quali surprise: Hulkenberg
5. Quali victim: Raikkonen
6. Overachiever race: Hulkenberg
7. Underperformer race: Verstappen
8. First Lap hero: Wehrlein
9. First lap zero: Vettel
10. First man out: Alonso
11. Safety cars: 1
12. Race leaders: 2
13. Classified: 18

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Last edited by theferret on Fri Jul 01, 2016 2:57 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 2:16 pm 
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Austria

1. Pole: Hamilton
2. Race winner: Rosberg
3. Fastest lap: Rosberg
4. Quali surprise: Gutierrez
5. Quali victim: Grosjean
6. Overachiever race: Hulkenberg
7. Underperformer race: Grosjean
8. First Lap hero: Alonso
9. First lap zero: Gutierrez
10. First man out: Nasr
11. Safety cars: 0
12. Race leaders: 1
13. Classified: 19

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2016 2:50 am 
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1. Pole: Hamilton
2. Race winner: Hamilton
3. Fastest lap: Vettel
4. Quali surprise: Sainz
5. Quali victim: Verstappen
6. Overachiever race: Sainz
7. Underperformer race: Verstappen
8. First Lap hero: Vettel
9. First lap zero: Ricciardo
10. First man out: Palmer
11. Safety cars: 1
12. Race leaders: 2
13. Classified: 19


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2016 9:46 am 
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1. Pole: Nico Rosberg
2. Race winner: Nico Rosberg
3. Fastest lap: Nico Rosberg
4. Quali surprise: Carlos Sainz
5. Quali victim: Sergio Perez
6. Overachiever race: Carlos Sainz
7. Underperformer race: Sergio Perez
8. First lap hero: Fernando Alonso
9. First lap zero: Daniil Kvyat
10. First man out: Daniil Kvyat
11. Safety cars: 1
12. Leaders: 2
13. Classified: 19

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2016 12:29 pm 
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Austria
1. Pole: Rosberg
2. Race winner: Hamilton
3. Fastest lap: Rosberg
4. Quali surprise: Saintz
5. Quali victim: Vettel
6. Overachiever race: Saintz
7. Under performer race: perez
8. First Lap hero: Vettel
9. First lap zero: massa
10. First man out: button
11. Safety cars: 1
12. Race leaders: 2
13. Classified: 18

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2016 6:47 pm 
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Austria

1. Pole: Lewis Hamilton
2. Race winner: Lewis Hamilton
3. Fastest lap: Sebastian Vettel
4. Quali surprise: Nico Hulkenberg
5. Quali victim: Romain Grosjean
6. Overachiever race: Nico Hulkenberg
7. Underperformer race: Daniel Ricciardo
8. First lap hero: Fernando Alonso
9. First lap zero: Kimi Raikkonen
10. First man out: Esteban Gutierrez
11. Safety cars: 0
12. Leaders: 3
13. Classified: 17

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2016 9:24 pm 
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Posts: 6896
Austria
1. Pole: Rosberg
2. Race winner: Rosberg
3. Fastest lap: Raikkonen
4. Quali surprise: Perez
5. Quali victim: Verstappen
6. Overachiever race: Perez
7. Underperformer race: Verstappen
8. First Lap hero: Magnussen
9. First lap zero: Bottas
10. First man out: Haryanto
11. Safety cars: 0
12. Race leaders: 2
13. Classified: 19


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