planetf1.com

Actually, I think Alonso is ultimately the better driver. But as far as their records vs Kimi go, they obtained very similar results. What that has to do with you fabricating scenarios with Kimi beating Vettel and therefore Alonso is anybody's guess, however

It wasn't me that fabricated it.

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PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: Currently 3rd

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (6)

If you consider it defining that's up to you. Those aren't my words. No idea why you are bringing up Ricciardo out of nowhere. Makes a change from Hamilton, I suppose

er, yes it was

No it's you who seem to be happy at using just 1 years data to decide who is the quicker driver.

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PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: Currently 3rd

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (6)

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PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: Currently 3rd

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (6)

You have a very unpalatable habit of trying to put words and conclusions in other people's mouths. It's very disingenuous.

I'm using 1 year's data to compare Alonso and Seb vs Kimi because that's the common denominator in time between them. That's all. It doesn't suddenly make one year a barometer for anything. And the only conclusion I have drawn from that is that they had very similar records against Kimi. I've not made any pronouncements beyond that, although no doubt you'll make some other strawman up that I'll have to defend

The Dan v Max thread has morphed into a Seb v Nando thread and I have no idea how

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Go Vandoorne - Verstappen - Vettel!

Yeah sometimes you can forget what thread you are in, I will desist.

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PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: Currently 3rd

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (6)

Another close qualifying battle but this time Dan takes it. Strongest line up on the grid by a good margin I feel.

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"Clark came through at the end of the first lap so far ahead that we in the pits were convinced that the rest of the field must have been wiped out in an accident."
-Eddie Dennis, describing the dominance of Jim Clark in the Lotus 49 at Spa 1967

Hard to disagree.

The prospect of a Ham/Ver vs Vet/Ric line-up for 2019 is mouthwatering. I don't mind waiting a year to get that.

I'll be disappointed in the end I'm sure. It would require both Ferrari and Merc potentially upsetting their lead drivers.

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Top Three Team Champions 2017 (With Jezza13)
Group Pick 'Em 2016 Champion

I reckon Hamilton/Ricciardo is the most likely pairing.

RB will move heaven and earth to keep hold of Verstappen, Ferrari may not want to potentially cause grief with Vettel by picking up the only team mate to really challenge him thus far, and Dan looks for all the world to be an upgrade on Bottas. Pushing way ahead into the future here, but I think Ferrari are looking at LeClerc to be Raikonnen's eventual replacement, Marko's recent comments seem to nail the Red Bull colours to Verstappen's mast with Sainz only on loan to Renault and waiting in the wings. That would leave Dan free and Bottas recent downward slide in performance compared to Hamilton doesn't make his seat all that secure for me.

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PF1 Pick 10 Competition 2018: {Rookie Year}
Current positon: 1st | 3 Podiums | 1 Win

Yeah I'd love either combo but I think Dan-Lewis is the best fit and easiest to get done.

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"Clark came through at the end of the first lap so far ahead that we in the pits were convinced that the rest of the field must have been wiped out in an accident."
-Eddie Dennis, describing the dominance of Jim Clark in the Lotus 49 at Spa 1967

Time will tell...It's certainly the only lineup with two top-shelf drivers (we did all agree on that top 5 list didn't we).

Ricciardo is already free for 2019, rumours I hear is that his more likely destination would be Ferrari.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: Currently 3rd

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (6)

whoever gets Dan will get a great driver

Aye. I know you view strongest line up in a different sense, more like team dynamic etc rather than just outright performance from both but I was just talking about performance/talent yeah.

Only one I can see troubling it next year is probably controversial because of Vandoorne's early season form but his junior record and performances lately(Didn't see what happened to him at the start today) need respect and I don't think Alonso has lost a step so it could be up there next year if Stoff continues his form. I think we've seen the best of Kimi and with Bottas I don't think he has the potential that Van does but I could well be wrong.

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"Clark came through at the end of the first lap so far ahead that we in the pits were convinced that the rest of the field must have been wiped out in an accident."
-Eddie Dennis, describing the dominance of Jim Clark in the Lotus 49 at Spa 1967

Now that Vandoorne is performing more at the level we were all expecting pre-season, I think Macca has to be in the running for the strongest lineup. Yes, maybe Alonso has lost it (suddenly, between the first half of the season and now), but considering Stoff's junior record it's a lot more likely they're both driving very well now.

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PF1 PICK 10 COMPETITION (4 wins, 14 podiums): 2017: 19th| 2016: 3rd| 2015: 4th
PF1 TOP THREE TEAM CHAMPIONSHIP (No Limit Excedrin Racing): 2017: 2nd| 2015: 1st
AUTOSPORT GP PREDICTOR: 2017 United States Champion! (world #2)

One of the McLarens was run off the road by Raikkonen. As Alonso made up a few places at the start I'm assuming it was Vandoorne who was the unfortunate one.

Yes. According to Macca, he was not only run off but also sustained damage.

_________________
PF1 PICK 10 COMPETITION (4 wins, 14 podiums): 2017: 19th| 2016: 3rd| 2015: 4th
PF1 TOP THREE TEAM CHAMPIONSHIP (No Limit Excedrin Racing): 2017: 2nd| 2015: 1st
AUTOSPORT GP PREDICTOR: 2017 United States Champion! (world #2)

Well, unbelievably, there have only been 3 weekends where these 2 drivers have had no trouble over the weekend and have both finished the race. That was Monaco, Malaysia and Japan. I'm not counting all the others because in every one of them, either one of them got taken out or made a mistake or had a penalty at the start so it wasn't a fair comparison. This is why I still feel really unsure who actually is the better of the two on the whole. There is no doubt about qualifying though and that goes to Verstappen.

About the races this year taking into account all that happened:


Australia, Ricciardo crashed in qualifying. That wasn't a good start for his season for him. Verstappen clearly did better that weekend, but as Ricciardo had to retire, we just can't compare their pace.

China, Verstappen had problems in qualifying meaning he couldn't get out of Q3. he clearly did better in the race, but comparing them when they started in a totally different position is a bit much. Verstappen was certainly better, but I think Many underrated Ricciardo at the end of the race. At that stage, he clearly was faster. But Verstappen deserved to finish ahead.

Bahrain, Ricciardo did qualify 2 places ahead of Verstappen. Verstappen had a much better start. But Ricciardo did follow close behind until Verstappen pitted. It was just after Verstappen pitted that his brakes failed. So we don't really know if Ricciardo could have got the better of him later.

Russia, Verstappen got a good start here although he did qualify 2 places behind Ricciardo. But I feel a quite likely reason Ricciardo will have had a bad start and have about 4 cars pass him was because of his issue that made him retire.

Spain, Ricciardo had a very large gap in qualifying compared to Verstappen and I think he was a bit lucky that day to get such a good result. But I personally thought Verstappen took a very big risk going on the outside of 2 cars going into the 1st corner and since Verstappen and Kimi retired and Bottas didn't, I think either none of them are to blame or it is Kimi or Verstappen. Kimi took a risk but he couldn't steer left because Verstappen was there. But I think it was a racing incident but it was unlucky for both who retired.

Monaco, this was one of the races I mentioned above because neither suffered from any bad luck / reliability or crashes over the weekend.

Canada, here, Verstappen took one of his risks that sometimes doesn't pay off. But it worked really well this time. But he suffered again and ended up retiring. But just because he got a great start relative to Ricciardo doesn't mean Ricciardo couldn't have got him back at the end. So another race we just can't compare them.

Baku, like Australia, qualifying was a mess for Ricciardo. His race was most certainly lucky, but the fact that he started low down due to his mistake and also had to pit due to his air intake duct being blocked doesn't make his result all down to luck. His drive was brilliant and his late dives are simply brilliant and never seem to result in any clashes. But I can't deny that Verstappen had a much better weekend and almost certainly will have won that day if not for his retirement.

Austria, Verstappen had a messy qualifying and very nearly crashed. Although he did what he needed to before hand and set a time pretty close to his team mates. The race start was unlucky for Verstappen and the fact that he got his was out of his control. Of course we don't know, but I personally think Ricciardo will have managed to do better that weekend if Verstappen hadn't had his reliability problems.

Britain, Ricciardo had problems in qualifying which forced him out very early. Such a shame as he was looking pretty strong so far that weekend. In the race, I think Verstappen did the best he could. Ricciardo did a reasonable job at recovering to 1 position behind Verstappen. Another race we can't compare their pace though.

Hungary, Verstappen again did a better job in qualifying. But he seemed to not deal very well with the fact that he was seeing his team mate overtaking him. So he braked too late and locked up and caused his team mate to retire. This gave him a penalty point and a 10 second penalty. I personally think this was a rather negative race for him compared to any of Ricciardo's even if his performance was decent.

Belgium, Ricciardo was out qualified by a large chunk again. Yet again, Verstappen did have to retire. Ricciardo made the most and looked on excellent form near the end of the race. But just how many races are we at now where we haven't had a chance to compare them?

Italy, Verstappen outqualified Ricciardo again. In the race, Verstappen attempted to do an overtake on Massa that he easily could have waited for a bit to do. I know many will disagree, but given that Massa got away with it and Verstappen got a puncture, I think what Massa did will have been allowed. So it was a racing incident but I personally think Verstappen was being too risky and cost his team quite a few points because he didn't wait for an easier place to pass. Ricciardo just seems better at managing passes without causing damage to his car. In my view, Ricciardo did better this weekend but as they were not racing eachother for most of the race, it is another lack of evidence of how good they are compared to each other.

Singapore, Ricciardo was far closer in qualifying this time, but still behind. There was yet another incident out of Verstappen's control. You can say Ricciardo was lucky with the result again, but another race where one of them didn't finish.

Malaysia, one of the races where we could compare them. Verstappen was better here in qualifying and by a decent margin in the race too.

Japan, Ricciardo managed to beat Verstappen in qualifying this time. But in the race, Verstappen managed to beat him pretty comfortably.

USA, Ricciardo managed to beat him in qualifying again here. This was a real chance for him to get a really strong result. But he had technical problems and had to retire. Verstappen made a very good recovery and a great race on the whole other than cutting the corner at the end. I'm not sure again who we can say was better.

Mexico, Ricciardo did have a poor qualifying. In the race though, he started to have issues and had a retirement again. However, Verstappen IMO made a move that he was rather lucky to get away with without getting a puncture. As he overtook Hamilton, he pulled in front just before he got his car fully past. So he clipped his rear left tyre on Hamilton's front wing. Due to this, Mercedes had to spend extra time in the pits replacing it. When a spinning trye contacts a front wing like that, it seems rather unusual that it didn't blow. He was lucky, but from that moment onwards, he was flawless and dominated that race. Verstappen just takes risk that sometimes work out and sometimes don't.

Brazil, Ricciardo had another grid penalty. He got spun on the 1st lap which cost him a lot of time. But he did manage to finish 6th behind Verstappen.

Abu Dhabi, Ricciardo certainly did look to have the upper hand on Verstappen over the weekend and even in the start of the race. I think it is likely that he will have managed to beat Verstappen, but again, we can't be sure.





So, the interesting thing is that Verstappen has had 7 retirements and Ricciardo has just had 1 less. From what Horner said, he said that Red Bull were by far at there strongest this year at Malaysia, Japan, USA and Mexico. Ricciardo had to retire in 2 of these which to me almost makes their bad luck even this year. Ricciardo certainly has had more reliability problems and one of his retirements was actually his team mates fault.

Given that the points gap between them is 32 points, I really am not sure I can say Verstappen has clearly beatem him this year like many seem to be saying. This is my personal opinion, but I still think Ricciardo on the whole is the better of the two. His race craft and overtakes look better. he also has been one of the few drivers to keep away from getting any penalty points. But there is such a lack of racing between them this year that I don't want to say Ricciardo IS the better of the two. Because Verstappen has shown such an improvement over last year (especially over qualifying) that I think he could well clearly show to be better next year. But their bad luck really hasn't been that different to me and I don't think that 1 more retirement for Verstappen can cost him 32 points. He's even had 2 wins unlike Ricciardo and still isn't that close.

Sorry to be against Verstappen. I agree he's had a brilliant season, I just think he has been very over rated when in comparison to his team mate.

Ricciardo over the course of the season had more reliably issues so I'm curious as to what the excuse is for why Ricciardo finished with more points.

Give this thread up. No one cant say the comparison is legit when Redbull announce halfway through that Verstappen is their man (#1 into future seasons). Redbull have a history of backing one (regardless if what they say) driver the results towards then end of the season reflect this. It's a shame we were robbed of a good battle. Perhaps when Dan joins a team where the car is reliable the points margin would be even greater.

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Aussie :: Ricciardo

so does this mean that Red Bull backed Ricciardo in 2014, then? Over their four-time WDC?

I think all we can really say is that Verstappen was the better qualifier over the course of this season. There's just too few opportunities to really compare the two in races, and so many times where one or the other went out too early in the race to say how it would have ended.

Ricciardo definitely went through a bit of a mid-season slump, but by the end I think it was looking quite tight again. It should be an interesting one for 2018!

_________________
PF1 PICK 10 COMPETITION (4 wins, 14 podiums): 2017: 19th| 2016: 3rd| 2015: 4th
PF1 TOP THREE TEAM CHAMPIONSHIP (No Limit Excedrin Racing): 2017: 2nd| 2015: 1st
AUTOSPORT GP PREDICTOR: 2017 United States Champion! (world #2)

Eh?

Ricciardo scored 170 of his 200 points in the 12 races from Spain to Japan. In that 12 race period he outscored Vettel.

That's the complete opposite of a mid season slump.

And Dan had more grid spot penalties - and also 'finished' races with problems - like in Singapore - just didn't retire - so I think Dan had an equal number of reliability issues - more grid penalties - lost out in key races where RBR was competitive - and still was well clear of Max

I think it was clear that Dan had Max covered in Abu Dhabi - as he was ahead after the pitstops

I have to say that if I was making decisions for Merc or Ferrari, I would be more interested in Daniel as a second to Lewis or Seb. When you factor in the apparent fact that RB seams to be tenaciously holding on to Max, I think Max is the more likely candidate to go in 2019 and my guess is that his destination will be Mercedes. Would be a good team mate for Lewis.

Spain is a bit earlier than I was thinking - more like Canada to Belgium, where Ricciardo was mostly getting lucky with his results and Max was retiring in front of him with engine issues.

_________________
PF1 PICK 10 COMPETITION (4 wins, 14 podiums): 2017: 19th| 2016: 3rd| 2015: 4th
PF1 TOP THREE TEAM CHAMPIONSHIP (No Limit Excedrin Racing): 2017: 2nd| 2015: 1st
AUTOSPORT GP PREDICTOR: 2017 United States Champion! (world #2)

Simple, no two races are alike. If you DNF in a race where other frontrunners DNF or have issues, that's going to be way more costly than DNF'ing in a race where no other frontrunners DNF or have issues and your pace is no better than fifth.

Think Baku vs Abu Dhabi. One DNF for RBR in each race, but with different consequences.

And that is not an excuse.

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Go Vandoorne - Verstappen - Vettel!

Didn't Vergne also do that though?

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Räikkönen - Vettel - Bottas
Thank you Nico - You´re the champ!

PF1 Pick 10 Competition 2016: CHAMPION (2 wins, 8 podiums)

Exediron possibly meant a slump in pace relative his teammate? With no stats to back it up, my initial gut feeling is that was true. But that doesn't mean Ricciardo didn't rack up points like a fiend during that stretch - it's psossible to lack pace to a teammate but still have pace / reliability / good strategy vs. the rest of the field.

Edit: Sorry, couldn't quote with my phone and it seems to have been addressed anyhow.

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[ Kimi Raikkonen ]
2007 Formula 1 World Drivers Champion

Is this a serious post?

Given the content, and the chap that has posted it, the insinuation should be all to clear (he is highlighting that yet again the A > B > C thus A > C logic is no good).

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PF1 Pick 10 Competition 2018: {Rookie Year}
Current positon: 1st | 3 Podiums | 1 Win

Yes, exactly this.

I remember working out Ricciardo's podiums earlier in the year, every single one had a large element of luck with multiple car failures ahead. He basically did what Verstappen did in AD (running 5th/6th place) but 3-4 cars fell off the road ahead of him in most of those early season podiums.

Not a knock at DR, but did he get a legitimate podium without a helping of luck all season?

Just off the top of my head

Spain - Bottas engine failure
Monaco - alternative strategy jumps Max and Bottas
Canada - Max DNF and Vettel wing damage
Baku - 8 cars ahead of him have some major issue
Austria - Hamilton grid penalty
Belgium - SC ruins Bottas' strategy, jumps him on restart
Singapore - 3 cars ahead of him wiped out
Malaysia - Both Ferrari's engine issues
Japan - Vettel spark plug issue

Max only got 4 podiums but all were legitimate podiums.

Yeah, that is what I meant: the mid-season is where I felt he was getting lucky with podiums while Max was quicker than him. In the early season I felt RIC was actually quicker than Max and was usually getting the results to go along with it, and at the end (aside from Abu Dhabi) Max was quicker and was getting the results.

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PF1 PICK 10 COMPETITION (4 wins, 14 podiums): 2017: 19th| 2016: 3rd| 2015: 4th
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I agree, sort of.

The A > B > C logic can be sound, but only if the data supporting it is statistically significant, which, of course, with the drivers mentioned, it isn’t.

This whole thread is fundamentally flawed because there’s just not enough data available (in the public domain) to be able to absolutely make the call on whether Dan or Max is the all round better driver.

Even the statement that Max is faster over one lap in qualifying is not entirely sound. We know that for at least one race (I forget which) Dan set his car up for a higher top speed at the expense of ultimate lap time. Dan is the last of the late breakers and so I’m guessing he did this to help with overtaking during the race.

These differing setups are (more or less) a result of RBR being the 3rd fastest car. If RBR had the fastest car both would be setting the car up for the highest grid position with the aim of leading the race from tip to tail.

In terms of like for like race pace, Max is usually faster than Dan, but again that’s not the whole story. Dan has been known to preserve his tyres mid stint so that he can pump in hot laps to make an over or under cut work. Like he did to Max at Monaco.

Bottom line, there’s just not enough races where both have finished to know for sure who is the fastester overall driver. We can guess or estimate, but we can’t know in a statistically significant way.

So, what do we actually know? We know that RBR has resigned Max until 2020 and they claim that they want to also want to resign Dan. The next interesting data point is what happens next.

If during 2018, Ferrari and Merc fall over themselves to sign Dan, and he signs with one of them for around the same amount as RBR paid Max, then we’ll know that Dan is regarded by the teams about as highly as Max.

On the other hand, if Ferrari and Merc, with all of the telemetry that they have on all of the drivers, are not that interested and Dan the resigns for RBR for half as much as Max, then that tells us all we need to know about his ranking.

All that said, if I had to say right now who I thought was the better driver, who would it be?

Well, I’ve been following F1 since the early 80’s. In that time, my view is that the greatest drivers have been, Ayrton, Michael and Lewis. In Max I see elements of those 3, especially his race starts which at times are epic. While in Dan I see elements of Alain, Nigel and Seb with respect to his strategic thinking and of course his overtakes.

I think Dan is a great driver, but I think that Max will go down as one of the greatest.

2018 is going to be delicious to watch.

Cheers,
Noel