planetf1.com

Delta laptime between different tyre compounds explained by Pirelli:


Source - http://www.Twitter.com

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Feel The Fourth

So Bottas' 18.9 on Mediums is roughly equal to 16.4-16.3 on Hypersoft.

God I hope Ferrari were holding a lot on those HS runs or its going to be a long season

That said I think they were, the gap to Haas on the same day just wouldn't make sense otherwise.

The Mercedes looks like its on rails everywhere. I'd love to see on onboarda and how much steering correction they have to do compared to others

Eric B- Not going to arrive in Melbourne with desired reliability target because of lack of running. Think they'll be in the fight in the middle of the group with Haas and Renault. Car is too complicated and tight aerodynamically to change engine in under 3hrs so they'll have to come up with new tools for the job. (AMuS)

It was the Turbo that failed earlier and you can see fresh scorch marks so the heat pocket is obviously still an issue. Pretty much as you were if 4th is still on the table but obviously not good but confirms they pushed the boat out and a bit too far at that!.

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"Clark came through at the end of the first lap so far ahead that we in the pits were convinced that the rest of the field must have been wiped out in an accident."
-Eddie Dennis, describing the dominance of Jim Clark in the Lotus 49 at Spa 1967

Either Alonso just cut the chicane or they're been sand bagging on a Saharan level.

EDIT: Yep, cut the chicane. A million McLaren fans slump back in their chairs.

EDIT EDIT: Still, a real 1:17.754 to go second afterwards, so definitely showing some late promise. Could just be Alonso being Alonso-y though.

EDIT EDIT EDIT: And we're done.

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Final standings at the end of the 4th day of the 2nd test:


Source - www.imgur.com

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Feel The Fourth

I do not think Ferrari went to qualifying mode like may be Alonso did ? Surely Mercedes can't have such a big advantage. But whatever it is they did not want to show it

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Sir Stirling Moss "Quite frankly, Kimi Raikkonen is the fastest driver in the world"

So what do we think guys? Mercedes dominance? Merc/Ferrari close battle? Red Bull right there? Thoughts?

So using the above picture from Twitter of the supposed tyre deltas between compounds from Pirelli I've knocked up a quick spreadsheet and tyre corrected all of the times to be the equivalent of a Hypersoft lap.

Results as below but worth noting that the tyre deltas in that picture are scribbled on some paper and so are not exactly concrete and I'm sure Ted gave different ones in a notebook episode a few days ago, there's also no guarantee that the tyre deltas are the same on any given day, in fact you would expect this to vary with conditions but there's not much we can do about that (however most of the times were set on day 7-8 so this variance should be negligible). Also the Haas time looks a little too good so I'm sceptical of the figures. In addition to that there's obviously another factor of how long the run was that the times were set which is really the key thing.

That said, while imperfect hopefully it gives a little more perspective on the laps. If anyone finds anything more official on the tyre deltas let me know as it wont take long to alter the formula and re post them.

Top 10 times of testing - Tyre corrected



Top times by driver - Tyre corrected



Top times by team - Tyre corrected


Edit: sorry I should have converted them back to 1:17.000 type format before posting. If it's not clear the times are in seconds so the Mercedes 76.225 is a 1:16.225.

Hopefully a 5th WDC for Hamilton.

Looking pretty good for Mercedes. Always annoys me being in the UK that the first race is in Australia, if I knew it was going to be Mercedes dominance I wouldn't bother getting up early, I'll probably judge it on qualifying times

Mercedes did 201 laps lol. I think Haas is looking good too. Renault had a bad day with gear box problem. Not sure why Ricciardo did only 92laps

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Sir Stirling Moss "Quite frankly, Kimi Raikkonen is the fastest driver in the world"

Going by the race stints it's Mercedes dominance with Ferrari/Red Bull further away than 2016 so unless Ferrari are sandbagging to world record levels it's number 5 in the bag for Mercedes and Bottas vs Lewis for the title.

So Lewis getting his 5th title too basically

Renault vs McLaren for 4th. Haas will beat one or both in Australia though but fall away post Spain. Force India will recover and either join the fight for 4th or fight for 5th with Williams and Haas.

STR and Sauber bring up the rear with asterisk next to STR as Honda's money and full chassis dyno could help James Key immensely and if Honda's first upgrade works well they could then jump into anywhere behind the top 3 and it wouldn't surprise me.

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"Clark came through at the end of the first lap so far ahead that we in the pits were convinced that the rest of the field must have been wiped out in an accident."
-Eddie Dennis, describing the dominance of Jim Clark in the Lotus 49 at Spa 1967

Jeez, it's not looking good for the rest of the field. Merc again seems to be in a class of their own. It looked like they found something at the end of last season with that convincing victory in AD, and then found some more in the off season. Get ready for Hamilton vs Bottas folks.

Mercedes being miles ahead is probably worse for Lewis than Merc being about 0.25 per lap ahead. If they are A LOT quicker than anyone else and Lewis has 2 more retirements than Bottas it will take 7 perfect races just to catch that up.

Good analysis Black Flag, cheers!

But I think even looking just at the Merc drivers, which show half a second gap between them shows that we should be taking the times with a pinch of salt.

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Yeah I know what you mean and it's happened before but Bottas is just nowhere near him in race pace or qualy unlike Nico so he can save a lot of his components by nursing them once ahead.

Reliability is always a fickle mistress so there's never any guarantees but I don't think it will break all one way again but if it does I still think he'll come out on top. He battered him last year in race pace especially.

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"Clark came through at the end of the first lap so far ahead that we in the pits were convinced that the rest of the field must have been wiped out in an accident."
-Eddie Dennis, describing the dominance of Jim Clark in the Lotus 49 at Spa 1967

If things play out like this then F1 will be in trouble. BIG trouble. Nothing hurts the sport more than this type of scenario; which renders whole seasons uninteresting. 2021 would be way too far off in terms of a time to shake things up if Mercedes widen the gap this year. I think last season was really interesting until the wheels came off Ferrari's challenge and to regress to what we had before (but without Rosberg to challenge Lewis) would be a massive blow to the show.

I believe he had over half a second on him on average in quali after the tyre issues were sorted in Monaco up until he sewed up the title in Mexico so I don't think it's that unbelievable. (That might've been with Monza included though, I saw it elsewhere over the winter but it wasn't mine so not sure)

EDIT: Ignore me. I got so much of the wrong end of the stick it's now a part of me.

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"Clark came through at the end of the first lap so far ahead that we in the pits were convinced that the rest of the field must have been wiped out in an accident."
-Eddie Dennis, describing the dominance of Jim Clark in the Lotus 49 at Spa 1967

Except it's Bottas half a second ahead...

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Top Three Team Champions 2017 (With Jezza13)
Group Pick 'Em 2016 Champion

Agree yeah. Ferrari changed concept with the WB so it could just be early niggles with their aero concept but AMuS think it's fuel consumption that Mercedes are on another planet with and Ferrari are struggling with so who knows. If Renault ever get their 5kg less MGU-K out of the factory then that would help Red Bull no-end but if it's not on the car in Melbourne then it's a long wait until they can.

With no engine upgrades until the 7th race planned and only 1 more towards the end of the season there just isn't the scope to improve that engine situation very much so they'll have to fight consumption with their aero concept which could mean sacrificing d/f.

Could be tough but you've got to tip your cap to Mercedes. Even repackaging 90% of the engine to make it more compact at the rear did absolutely nothing to trip them up. I hope Honda are taking notes about what can be done when your chassis department makes demands like that because if they thought McLaren were bad wait until Red Bull demand what Mercedes just did...

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"Clark came through at the end of the first lap so far ahead that we in the pits were convinced that the rest of the field must have been wiped out in an accident."
-Eddie Dennis, describing the dominance of Jim Clark in the Lotus 49 at Spa 1967

That'll teach me for not paying attention to the quoted posts, sorry.

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"Clark came through at the end of the first lap so far ahead that we in the pits were convinced that the rest of the field must have been wiped out in an accident."
-Eddie Dennis, describing the dominance of Jim Clark in the Lotus 49 at Spa 1967

Thanks for doing that analysis - I was actually planning on doing something similar, so you've saved me a bunch of time!

Interesting, and it confirms my suspicion that the cars are capable of low 16s or even high 15s. But I can't believe it's the true pecking order, and the reason is called Haas F1.

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PICK 10 COMPETITION (4 wins, 15 podiums): 3rd in 2016
TOP THREE CHAMPIONSHIP (No Limit Excedrin Racing): Champions in 2015 & 2018 | 2nd in 2017 & 2019
[b]AUTOSPORT GP PREDICTOR: 2017 USA & P-F1 Champion

The Haas is basically a baby Ferrari which is a well developed chassis and just some tweaks to the Ferrari at the end of last year. Same story as last year, they'll start strong because of it but as development continues elsewhere they'll fall back as they don't seem to develop very well which is understandable I guess at this stage of their existence.

Last year they were 4th quickest at Melbourne, 4ths in front of Williams and a mile ahead of everyone else as it's like putting the previous years Ferrari on the grid again. But it soon becomes a year old if you see what I mean.

They actually highlight how much development goes on in a year.

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"Clark came through at the end of the first lap so far ahead that we in the pits were convinced that the rest of the field must have been wiped out in an accident."
-Eddie Dennis, describing the dominance of Jim Clark in the Lotus 49 at Spa 1967

Indeed haas is baby Ferrari, which also makes you wonder how is it that they fell off so bad last year in the development and couldn't get a handle on their brake issue which seemed to go on forever. As the Ferrari engine upgrades kept coming in the chassis couldn't keep up.

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PF1 pick 10 2016: 7th (1 win, 4 podiums), 2017: 17th (3 podiums)
Awards: Sergio perez trophy & Podium specialist
PF1 pick 3 2015: constructors 2nd, singles 5th
Autosport Gp 2016/17 - 5th
F1 Oracle 2017: 2nd (6 wins), 2016:5th (2wins)

I know the times can't be treated as definitive indications of where the teams and drivers are in the pecking order, but if they are representative for Williams, then Stroll could be in for a long year if Sirotkin keeps that difference up!

I agree the cars are definitely capable of more. In typical Ferrari fashion they wanted to be first in testing but to quote Christian Horner "You don't win trophies in winter testing." Ferrari could find themselves in better one lap pace but that wont win them races if the Mercedes race pace is as superior as we are lead to believe at the moment. The merc's focused on race pace and getting a handle on the operating window for the tires. They also stayed away from the much softer tire compounds. Which is the area that caught them out last year and it seems they have got it dialed in.

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PF1 pick 10 2016: 7th (1 win, 4 podiums), 2017: 17th (3 podiums)
Awards: Sergio perez trophy & Podium specialist
PF1 pick 3 2015: constructors 2nd, singles 5th
Autosport Gp 2016/17 - 5th
F1 Oracle 2017: 2nd (6 wins), 2016:5th (2wins)

Last day of testing review


Source : https://youtu.be/_DOmznCojF0

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PF1 pick 10 2016: 7th (1 win, 4 podiums), 2017: 17th (3 podiums)
Awards: Sergio perez trophy & Podium specialist
PF1 pick 3 2015: constructors 2nd, singles 5th
Autosport Gp 2016/17 - 5th
F1 Oracle 2017: 2nd (6 wins), 2016:5th (2wins)

Best comparison ive seen so far


Source: https://youtu.be/rNFb8v5P3Co

Imo the merc looks much smoother in the corners and uses less of the track to attack the racing line. It also sounds like its on the power much sooner then the ferrari on most of the corners.

_________________
PF1 pick 10 2016: 7th (1 win, 4 podiums), 2017: 17th (3 podiums)
Awards: Sergio perez trophy & Podium specialist
PF1 pick 3 2015: constructors 2nd, singles 5th
Autosport Gp 2016/17 - 5th
F1 Oracle 2017: 2nd (6 wins), 2016:5th (2wins)

Great video. From the looks of it, the Ferrari is more twitchy and suffers minor traction events more frequently. My estimation is that (at least in current spec) the Mercedes produces more downforce and has superior grip overall.

if this is a sign of whats to come ferrari need some more down force.....

This youtube channel also has vids for most teams testing if anyone is looking to see other guys on track (redbull, mclaren, renault, sauber, merc, ferrari, toro rosso & force india)

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PF1 pick 10 2016: 7th (1 win, 4 podiums), 2017: 17th (3 podiums)
Awards: Sergio perez trophy & Podium specialist
PF1 pick 3 2015: constructors 2nd, singles 5th
Autosport Gp 2016/17 - 5th
F1 Oracle 2017: 2nd (6 wins), 2016:5th (2wins)

There are big issues with the current data we have from race simulations which was used to calculate and speculate all those corrected times.
Mercedes did entire run on mediums and last stint was on tyres which were 4 laps younger than redbull and 8 laps younger than Ferrari. It is this stint where they put in those 1:19s and everyone is using that data to predict absolute dominance of Mercedes in long runs.
I am not so sure. Redbull and Ferrari both look strong if you take into account fuel loads and older tyres with Ferrari having slight edge on Redbull. May not be absolutely on par with Mercedes, but too close for comfort and something that can can be found in 2 weeks.

We will know real picture only at Australia or rather at Bahrain. But Australia will still give us the general idea. I dont think any of the top 3 teams went all out. I think we will see times at least 7-8 tenth quicker than this when we go racing if not more. We will be in low 1:16s or even on the verge of breaking 1:15 barrier here when we come back for the GP. I can bet 10 bucks on this.

Interesting info regarding the tyres . I do think letting go James Allison was a mistake by Ferrari. It will be ironic that his input will lead to another title for Mercedes. RBR is ahead of Ferrari
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PNPHyeqNqIo

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Sir Stirling Moss "Quite frankly, Kimi Raikkonen is the fastest driver in the world"

The adjusted pace chart has it ahead of the Ferrari. That's not going to happen.


I think you'd lose that bet, since the times will run up against the same wall we hit last year: the tyre allocation for Spain. The Soft is likely to be the softest tyre on offer as it was last year, and that's not going to yield a 1:15 even if the cars do a little bit of development between now and the European season.

Last year Kimi set a 1:18.6 in testing and the pole was 1:19.1 when the GP came around. We'll almost certainly see the times go backwards this year too, probably into somewhere in the low 17s.

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PICK 10 COMPETITION (4 wins, 15 podiums): 3rd in 2016
TOP THREE CHAMPIONSHIP (No Limit Excedrin Racing): Champions in 2015 & 2018 | 2nd in 2017 & 2019
[b]AUTOSPORT GP PREDICTOR: 2017 USA & P-F1 Champion

Apart from being a fanboy, I might seem biased but I'm not buying the fact that Force India are struggling. Throughout the 8 days of test, they had different priorities to fulfill & not just put a fast lap. The 8 days they just wanted to get their base assessed completely before adding an upgrade in Australia. I just feel they weren't bothered in setting a quick lap time.

Edd Straw from Autosport even said Force India had 1 of the best cars when going through the final chicane. It looked planted & wasn't going in a direction that wasn't needed.

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Feel The Fourth

Mileage charts:


Source - www.racingclothesline.com


Source - www.racingclothesline.com

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Feel The Fourth

It's just Raikkonen fans getting their excuses in early for when we enter the European season with Raikkonen miles off Vettel's points haul.

I remember someone (probably James Allison) said that last year's Merc wasn't pushing the boundaries anywhere near as much as it could've been, and that because of the regulation changes, they had intentionally built a car within the limits to give themselves some wiggle room. So my prediction going into this year was that, as they'd now have a better idea where they could really find time, they would be able to do so and would return to the sort of dominance we saw between 2014 and 2016. Testing does seem to suggest that is the case; for the sake of competitiveness, hopefully they aren't as far ahead as it would appear.

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2019: 11th | 2018: 5th | 2017: 6th | 2016: 8th | 2015: 2nd | 2014: 15th | 2013: 17th | 2012: 11th

What was all this smoking from the Ferrari's when starting?

Seems to happen to all Ferrari engines and is most likely due to the rule changes around oil burning. There's also a little smoke when they're out on track and apparently their fuel consumption is pretty bad so it looks like they've screwed up the engine.