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PostPosted: Wed Jul 04, 2018 10:02 am 
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What Ricciardo needs now is to get as much $ for his service as possible, anywhere outside of Mercedes or Ferrari, is not a title winning car so might just look for where the money is really.


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 04, 2018 10:06 am 
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jono794 wrote:
The question Ricciardo needs to ask himself is do any of his options for 2019 have a chance at the title? At this point with the Ferrari door closing the answer is probably no. Honda are better this year for sure, but in the overall scheme of things they are still by far the weakest PU, both in terms of performance and reliability. To turn things around in time for a Red Bull title run they would need to show a rate of improvement they have not yet demonstrated.

So if 2019 is a write-off title wise, Renault starts to look pretty good. They've shown gradual but consistent improvement since the factory came back in 2016, and now any step forward they make is eating into the advantage of the top three. At this rate there's no reason they won't be a contender in 2020, especially with full benefit of all the Renault investment only just now starting to kick in. A move there now could be a very shrewd one...


Agree.

Sadly I think if he re-signs with RB then, all things being equal, he can kiss goodbye any hope of a drivers championship.

I think his only chance of a WC lies with Renault at the change of regs if they're keen to sign him.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 04, 2018 10:25 am 
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Jezza13 wrote:
jono794 wrote:
The question Ricciardo needs to ask himself is do any of his options for 2019 have a chance at the title? At this point with the Ferrari door closing the answer is probably no. Honda are better this year for sure, but in the overall scheme of things they are still by far the weakest PU, both in terms of performance and reliability. To turn things around in time for a Red Bull title run they would need to show a rate of improvement they have not yet demonstrated.

So if 2019 is a write-off title wise, Renault starts to look pretty good. They've shown gradual but consistent improvement since the factory came back in 2016, and now any step forward they make is eating into the advantage of the top three. At this rate there's no reason they won't be a contender in 2020, especially with full benefit of all the Renault investment only just now starting to kick in. A move there now could be a very shrewd one...


Agree.

Sadly I think if he re-signs with RB then, all things being equal, he can kiss goodbye any hope of a drivers championship.

I think his only chance of a WC lies with Renault at the change of regs if they're keen to sign him.

I disagree, quite strongly!

Red Bull have shown that they are always there, or thereabouts. It's pretty clear that the main thing holding them back has been their PU, but chassis-wise they have a top-performer. Renault have the funding, but there again so do McLaren, and look where that funding has got them.

People might argue that Honda is a risk, but I think much of that risk has been severely reduced. McLaren took a complete gamble when they partnered Honda (and, for the record I said at the time and still say now that they made a mistake abandoning the partnership), but for Renault the risk is much smaller. Honda are now starting to make visible gains and performance-wise aren't looking too bad. Yes, there is still a question mark over reliability but Renault doesn't exactly have a stellar record in that department, either. I also think Honda would have had much more hard data to show Red Bull than McLaren ever had, so Red Bull are likely going into this with facts to back them up, rather than empty promises.

At Red Bull, Ricciardo knows that he has one of the best engineering teams in the business. Time and time again they produce winning chassis. Renault is still all about the potential. This year, if nothing else, is a stark reminder of just how big the gulfs between good and bad chassis design are. Even with a relatively underpowered PU, Red Bull are still taking wins and regular podiums, whereas Renault, with the same PU (albeit with even more power, courtesy of their fuel supplier) is miles away. Imagine if Red Bull had a PU to match either Ferrari or Mercedes - it looks like they'd frankly be untouchable.

In summary, the bigger risk by far for Ricciardo is to leave Red Bull. They have a proven track record of rising to the challenge. Renault would be a relatively massive gamble and Ricciardo runs a real risk of doing an "Alonso," which could backfire spectacularly. He's currently driving for one of the giants in F1. He'd be mad to leave it, IMO


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 04, 2018 10:41 am 
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Zoue wrote:
Jezza13 wrote:
jono794 wrote:
The question Ricciardo needs to ask himself is do any of his options for 2019 have a chance at the title? At this point with the Ferrari door closing the answer is probably no. Honda are better this year for sure, but in the overall scheme of things they are still by far the weakest PU, both in terms of performance and reliability. To turn things around in time for a Red Bull title run they would need to show a rate of improvement they have not yet demonstrated.

So if 2019 is a write-off title wise, Renault starts to look pretty good. They've shown gradual but consistent improvement since the factory came back in 2016, and now any step forward they make is eating into the advantage of the top three. At this rate there's no reason they won't be a contender in 2020, especially with full benefit of all the Renault investment only just now starting to kick in. A move there now could be a very shrewd one...


Agree.

Sadly I think if he re-signs with RB then, all things being equal, he can kiss goodbye any hope of a drivers championship.

I think his only chance of a WC lies with Renault at the change of regs if they're keen to sign him.

I disagree, quite strongly!

Red Bull have shown that they are always there, or thereabouts. It's pretty clear that the main thing holding them back has been their PU, but chassis-wise they have a top-performer. Renault have the funding, but there again so do McLaren, and look where that funding has got them.

People might argue that Honda is a risk, but I think much of that risk has been severely reduced. McLaren took a complete gamble when they partnered Honda (and, for the record I said at the time and still say now that they made a mistake abandoning the partnership), but for Renault the risk is much smaller. Honda are now starting to make visible gains and performance-wise aren't looking too bad. Yes, there is still a question mark over reliability but Renault doesn't exactly have a stellar record in that department, either. I also think Honda would have had much more hard data to show Red Bull than McLaren ever had, so Red Bull are likely going into this with facts to back them up, rather than empty promises.

At Red Bull, Ricciardo knows that he has one of the best engineering teams in the business. Time and time again they produce winning chassis. Renault is still all about the potential. This year, if nothing else, is a stark reminder of just how big the gulfs between good and bad chassis design are. Even with a relatively underpowered PU, Red Bull are still taking wins and regular podiums, whereas Renault, with the same PU (albeit with even more power, courtesy of their fuel supplier) is miles away. Imagine if Red Bull had a PU to match either Ferrari or Mercedes - it looks like they'd frankly be untouchable.

In summary, the bigger risk by far for Ricciardo is to leave Red Bull. They have a proven track record of rising to the challenge. Renault would be a relatively massive gamble and Ricciardo runs a real risk of doing an "Alonso," which could backfire spectacularly. He's currently driving for one of the giants in F1. He'd be mad to leave it, IMO


Redbull for one know how to build a chassis so it's going to inspire Honda on the development part as well.

The Honda was being held back by Mclaren as even when the engine improved the chassis held it back.


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 04, 2018 11:39 am 
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Zoue wrote:
I disagree, quite strongly!

Red Bull have shown that they are always there, or thereabouts. It's pretty clear that the main thing holding them back has been their PU, but chassis-wise they have a top-performer. Renault have the funding, but there again so do McLaren, and look where that funding has got them.

People might argue that Honda is a risk, but I think much of that risk has been severely reduced. McLaren took a complete gamble when they partnered Honda (and, for the record I said at the time and still say now that they made a mistake abandoning the partnership), but for Renault the risk is much smaller. Honda are now starting to make visible gains and performance-wise aren't looking too bad. Yes, there is still a question mark over reliability but Renault doesn't exactly have a stellar record in that department, either. I also think Honda would have had much more hard data to show Red Bull than McLaren ever had, so Red Bull are likely going into this with facts to back them up, rather than empty promises.

At Red Bull, Ricciardo knows that he has one of the best engineering teams in the business. Time and time again they produce winning chassis. Renault is still all about the potential. This year, if nothing else, is a stark reminder of just how big the gulfs between good and bad chassis design are. Even with a relatively underpowered PU, Red Bull are still taking wins and regular podiums, whereas Renault, with the same PU (albeit with even more power, courtesy of their fuel supplier) is miles away. Imagine if Red Bull had a PU to match either Ferrari or Mercedes - it looks like they'd frankly be untouchable.

In summary, the bigger risk by far for Ricciardo is to leave Red Bull. They have a proven track record of rising to the challenge. Renault would be a relatively massive gamble and Ricciardo runs a real risk of doing an "Alonso," which could backfire spectacularly. He's currently driving for one of the giants in F1. He'd be mad to leave it, IMO

My thoughts exactly. Even the part about Mclaren ditching Honda being a mistake. I even had the same thought about Ricciardo having the potential to have an Alonso type career trajectory, only without the titles.

Let’s not forget that RBR won 4 back-to-back titles with an engine that wasn’t the best but had a couple strengths (lower fuel consumption, cool off throttle exhaust blowing) that they exploited to great affect. As long as Newey is around and Dieter is willing to foot the bill Red Bull is going to be in the fight.

The current Honda PU is no Renault V8 right now and probably won’t be next year either. But they are learning right now and will be in on the ground floor for developing the next gen PU and it’s in Red Bull’s interest to be working with them throughout the build up to the next regulation change.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 04, 2018 11:45 am 
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Assuming Ferrari and Mercedes aren't interested, the best place for him is still Red Bull if it's a title he wants.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 04, 2018 1:01 pm 
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Rockie wrote:
Zoue wrote:
Jezza13 wrote:
jono794 wrote:
The question Ricciardo needs to ask himself is do any of his options for 2019 have a chance at the title? At this point with the Ferrari door closing the answer is probably no. Honda are better this year for sure, but in the overall scheme of things they are still by far the weakest PU, both in terms of performance and reliability. To turn things around in time for a Red Bull title run they would need to show a rate of improvement they have not yet demonstrated.

So if 2019 is a write-off title wise, Renault starts to look pretty good. They've shown gradual but consistent improvement since the factory came back in 2016, and now any step forward they make is eating into the advantage of the top three. At this rate there's no reason they won't be a contender in 2020, especially with full benefit of all the Renault investment only just now starting to kick in. A move there now could be a very shrewd one...


Agree.

Sadly I think if he re-signs with RB then, all things being equal, he can kiss goodbye any hope of a drivers championship.

I think his only chance of a WC lies with Renault at the change of regs if they're keen to sign him.

I disagree, quite strongly!

Red Bull have shown that they are always there, or thereabouts. It's pretty clear that the main thing holding them back has been their PU, but chassis-wise they have a top-performer. Renault have the funding, but there again so do McLaren, and look where that funding has got them.

People might argue that Honda is a risk, but I think much of that risk has been severely reduced. McLaren took a complete gamble when they partnered Honda (and, for the record I said at the time and still say now that they made a mistake abandoning the partnership), but for Renault the risk is much smaller. Honda are now starting to make visible gains and performance-wise aren't looking too bad. Yes, there is still a question mark over reliability but Renault doesn't exactly have a stellar record in that department, either. I also think Honda would have had much more hard data to show Red Bull than McLaren ever had, so Red Bull are likely going into this with facts to back them up, rather than empty promises.

At Red Bull, Ricciardo knows that he has one of the best engineering teams in the business. Time and time again they produce winning chassis. Renault is still all about the potential. This year, if nothing else, is a stark reminder of just how big the gulfs between good and bad chassis design are. Even with a relatively underpowered PU, Red Bull are still taking wins and regular podiums, whereas Renault, with the same PU (albeit with even more power, courtesy of their fuel supplier) is miles away. Imagine if Red Bull had a PU to match either Ferrari or Mercedes - it looks like they'd frankly be untouchable.

In summary, the bigger risk by far for Ricciardo is to leave Red Bull. They have a proven track record of rising to the challenge. Renault would be a relatively massive gamble and Ricciardo runs a real risk of doing an "Alonso," which could backfire spectacularly. He's currently driving for one of the giants in F1. He'd be mad to leave it, IMO


Redbull for one know how to build a chassis so it's going to inspire Honda on the development part as well.

The Honda was being held back by Mclaren as even when the engine improved the chassis held it back.

Although people seem to have this view that the McLaren chassis was as bad previous years as this year there is no actual proof of that. There have been enough changes in the design that they could have lost their way with this chassis and others were much better.
I'll admit they could have been building bad chassis throughout their Honda partnership, but to state it pretty much as fact is incorrect


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 04, 2018 1:06 pm 
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at this point, red bull could offer him less than they originally did.
not sure what his attitude in austria was about, but maybe he wants out of red bull? i would think a two year contract at red bull is a no brainer


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 04, 2018 1:11 pm 
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dompclarke wrote:
Although people seem to have this view that the McLaren chassis was as bad previous years as this year there is no actual proof of that. There have been enough changes in the design that they could have lost their way with this chassis and others were much better.
I'll admit they could have been building bad chassis throughout their Honda partnership, but to state it pretty much as fact is incorrect


The only difference between last year and this year is there is no Honda engine to blame, Mclaren is as bad this year as they were last year, I have no doubt about that.

Everyone can pile downforce on a car to make it look good in corners, but balancing it out to make it fast on the straight is another thing.

What Mclaren did last year was to pile downforce on and say look at us through the corners we are good but its on the straights we lose out I'm sure engineers up and down the paddock will have been chuckling themselves when they heard this, they can't this year because of how far off they are of Renault, and the total disaster they are when compared to Redbull.


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 04, 2018 1:27 pm 
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Rockie wrote:
dompclarke wrote:
Although people seem to have this view that the McLaren chassis was as bad previous years as this year there is no actual proof of that. There have been enough changes in the design that they could have lost their way with this chassis and others were much better.
I'll admit they could have been building bad chassis throughout their Honda partnership, but to state it pretty much as fact is incorrect


The only difference between last year and this year is there is no Honda engine to blame, Mclaren is as bad this year as they were last year, I have no doubt about that.

Everyone can pile downforce on a car to make it look good in corners, but balancing it out to make it fast on the straight is another thing.

What Mclaren did last year was to pile downforce on and say look at us through the corners we are good but its on the straights we lose out I'm sure engineers up and down the paddock will have been chuckling themselves when they heard this, they can't this year because of how far off they are of Renault, and the total disaster they are when compared to Redbull.

As usual just an opinion, if it's a fact where's the proof rather than the circumstantial evidence you offer.

I'm not disputing it's a possibility, more likely at this point probably true, but to state is as fact is wrong


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 04, 2018 1:33 pm 
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Rockie wrote:
dompclarke wrote:
Although people seem to have this view that the McLaren chassis was as bad previous years as this year there is no actual proof of that. There have been enough changes in the design that they could have lost their way with this chassis and others were much better.
I'll admit they could have been building bad chassis throughout their Honda partnership, but to state it pretty much as fact is incorrect


The only difference between last year and this year is there is no Honda engine to blame, Mclaren is as bad this year as they were last year, I have no doubt about that.

Everyone can pile downforce on a car to make it look good in corners, but balancing it out to make it fast on the straight is another thing.

What Mclaren did last year was to pile downforce on and say look at us through the corners we are good but its on the straights we lose out I'm sure engineers up and down the paddock will have been chuckling themselves when they heard this, they can't this year because of how far off they are of Renault, and the total disaster they are when compared to Redbull.


It is documented and should not be a topic of contention:
- that the Honda was down on power immensely
- that the Honda MGU-K couldn't do more than two races
- that the drivers consequently had the questionable honor of leading the power unit component usage table by some distance
- that the way Honda tested was severely flawed (single-cilinder testing, no integrated testing of the entire driveline, ...)

Honda this year is not Honda last year. They are more reliable, they have more power, they seem to have worked on delivery as well.

McLaren screwed up with the MCL33, that much is certain. By now it seems evident that the chassis is severely flawed. But the past three years, most of it you can easily pin on Honda.

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Last edited by mds on Wed Jul 04, 2018 2:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 04, 2018 2:27 pm 
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I do like the direction the conversation in this thread has taken. Renault would be risky but that might be his "Hamilton move" if you know what I mean. Going to a team before everyone knows it's the place to be would be a stroke of genius and it's not so far fetched to think that Renault might be the team to beat in 2021. This is especially true if the team focuses on that regulations change year from an early point in time while the big 3 teams focus on trying to win titles in 2019 and 2020.

If the Honda PU continues to lag behind (a completely possible scenario), Red Bull would have an anchor around their neck for the foreseeable future. In that case, being at Renault would offer Daniel a relative advantage. It would also likely offer him a teammate that he could beat both on Saturdays and Sundays.

I think Max has already gained the upper hand over Daniel. Max's rocky start to the season has masked that but even in Daniel's shiniest moment (the win in China) you'd have to say that, if not for mistakes, Max would have won that race. Mistakes and not performance are the reason Max is trailing Daniel in the points this year. He has been quicker than Daniel most of the time and when he irons out his mistakes, I can actually see the match-up becoming a bit one-sided. I think 2 more years at Red Bull might really hurt Daniel's career to be honest and I think his stock may never be higher than it is right now.

Anyway, I'm just saying that a #1 driver role with a works team isn't a crazy thing to jump to; even if it doesn't bare fruit immediately.


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 04, 2018 4:17 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
mcdo wrote:
Rockie wrote:
Zoue wrote:
I've said it before and I'll say it again: it makes zero sense for Dan to leave Red Bull at the moment. They are improving practically with every race and once again look like they have the best chassis, even overcoming their PU deficit in races. With the new engine regulations around the corner which are supposed to equalise the engines to a certain extent, you'd have to put money on Red Bull being at the front again sooner rather than later


Asides from this which is the most important point, should he go to Mercedes or Ferrari and get beat by either Hamilton or Vettel, especially Vettel it will be the beginning of the end for him.

I'd bet my house it wouldn't happen. Raikkonen is too close to Vettel for me to think Dan wouldn't beat Seb again

Only in qualifying. You wouldn't call them close in the race

Two races have passed since I made that statement. Both races support my argument. I don't think Kimi has Seb's race pace. But such things don't matter when Seb is getting himself into the situations he has - even if I think the calls against him have been harsh. I just think Dan is another level above Kimi and Seb would be losing out against him. Again.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 04, 2018 7:10 pm 
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mcdo wrote:
Two races have passed since I made that statement. Both races support my argument. I don't think Kimi has Seb's race pace. But such things don't matter when Seb is getting himself into the situations he has - even if I think the calls against him have been harsh. I just think Dan is another level above Kimi and Seb would be losing out against him. Again.

I think a notable thing about Ricciardo compared to the other top drivers is that he gets very close to 100% - if not above - the haul of points he should be getting based on the car he has and the pace he has. Other drivers who might be quicker give up more points through errors, but I can barely recall Dan making a mistake in a race that cost him.

So yeah, I think there's a really good chance he'd outscore Vettel even if Seb was a little bit quicker than him. Something I'm not at all certain of, mind you.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 04, 2018 7:33 pm 
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mds wrote:
Rockie wrote:
dompclarke wrote:
Although people seem to have this view that the McLaren chassis was as bad previous years as this year there is no actual proof of that. There have been enough changes in the design that they could have lost their way with this chassis and others were much better.
I'll admit they could have been building bad chassis throughout their Honda partnership, but to state it pretty much as fact is incorrect


The only difference between last year and this year is there is no Honda engine to blame, Mclaren is as bad this year as they were last year, I have no doubt about that.

Everyone can pile downforce on a car to make it look good in corners, but balancing it out to make it fast on the straight is another thing.

What Mclaren did last year was to pile downforce on and say look at us through the corners we are good but its on the straights we lose out I'm sure engineers up and down the paddock will have been chuckling themselves when they heard this, they can't this year because of how far off they are of Renault, and the total disaster they are when compared to Redbull.


It is documented and should not be a topic of contention:
- that the Honda was down on power immensely
- that the Honda MGU-K couldn't do more than two races
- that the drivers consequently had the questionable honor of leading the power unit component usage table by some distance
- that the way Honda tested was severely flawed (single-cilinder testing, no integrated testing of the entire driveline, ...)

Honda this year is not Honda last year. They are more reliable, they have more power, they seem to have worked on delivery as well.

McLaren screwed up with the MCL33, that much is certain. By now it seems evident that the chassis is severely flawed. But the past three years, most of it you can easily pin on Honda.


If the Honda was still in the Mclaren you will be arguing with it being down on power.

Reliability yes I agree with you, but why you can say Mclaren's chassis is crap this season is because of other Renault engined cars.

In '14 when Renault could not even start the engine at the first test and didn't know what they were doing Redbull still won with the engine, if Mclaren had as good a chassis as they claimed they would have lucked into a podium at the very least.


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 04, 2018 7:35 pm 
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dompclarke wrote:
Rockie wrote:
dompclarke wrote:
Although people seem to have this view that the McLaren chassis was as bad previous years as this year there is no actual proof of that. There have been enough changes in the design that they could have lost their way with this chassis and others were much better.
I'll admit they could have been building bad chassis throughout their Honda partnership, but to state it pretty much as fact is incorrect


The only difference between last year and this year is there is no Honda engine to blame, Mclaren is as bad this year as they were last year, I have no doubt about that.

Everyone can pile downforce on a car to make it look good in corners, but balancing it out to make it fast on the straight is another thing.

What Mclaren did last year was to pile downforce on and say look at us through the corners we are good but its on the straights we lose out I'm sure engineers up and down the paddock will have been chuckling themselves when they heard this, they can't this year because of how far off they are of Renault, and the total disaster they are when compared to Redbull.

As usual just an opinion, if it's a fact where's the proof rather than the circumstantial evidence you offer.

I'm not disputing it's a possibility, more likely at this point probably true, but to state is as fact is wrong


That's why I used "I" in my assertion.


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 04, 2018 7:55 pm 
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Rockie wrote:
If the Honda was still in the Mclaren you will be arguing with it being down on power.


That's not necessarily true. This is another year and with the Honda they would have probably been further back, and they would probably have showed worse results than 2017.

I mean, you give 2014 as an example and I agree RBR did wonders with it, but even then it was clear enough that the Renault was underpowered hugely when compared to the Mercedes. How did we know? How could one prove the Renault was down on power? How could one prove that the Renault, while unreliable, wasn't the very fastest and the RBR>STR>Caterham chassis didn't go from bad to worse to utterly terrible?
That's my point - we know the Renault wasn't just unreliable but also slow, and the RB10 was an incredibly good car.

Likewise we do not need to revise 2017 and all of a sudden start claiming the Honda wasn't down on power against all other PU's. It was, and the quality of the MCL33 doesn't change that.

Now I wouldn't call the MCL32 an incredibly good car, but it had its moments and it was definitely held back by the Honda.
What is now becoming apparent is that Honda have done some good work over the winter and McLaren have not done a good enough job on their side. But that doesn't mean that what was true last year suddenly changes.

Meanwhile STR have 3 points finishes (as compared to 8 last year at this point), are eighth in the standings and are getting reeled in by Sauber (and if it wasn't for the fourth place outlier they'd be well behind already).

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 04, 2018 8:05 pm 
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mds wrote:
Rockie wrote:
If the Honda was still in the Mclaren you will be arguing with it being down on power.


That's not necessarily true. This is another year and with the Honda they would have probably been further back, and they would probably have showed worse results than 2017.

I mean, you give 2014 as an example and I agree RBR did wonders with it, but even then it was clear enough that the Renault was underpowered hugely when compared to the Mercedes. How did we know? How could one prove the Renault was down on power? How could one prove that the Renault, while unreliable, wasn't the very fastest and the RBR>STR>Caterham chassis didn't go from bad to worse to utterly terrible?
That's my point - we know the Renault wasn't just unreliable but also slow, and the RB10 was an incredibly good car.

Likewise we do not need to revise 2017 and all of a sudden start claiming the Honda wasn't down on power against all other PU's. It was, and the quality of the MCL33 doesn't change that.

Now I wouldn't call the MCL32 an incredibly good car, but it had its moments and it was definitely held back by the Honda.
What is now becoming apparent is that Honda have done some good work over the winter and McLaren have not done a good enough job on their side. But that doesn't mean that what was true last year suddenly changes.

Meanwhile STR have 3 points finishes (as compared to 8 last year at this point), are eighth in the standings and are getting reeled in by Sauber (and if it wasn't for the fourth place outlier they'd be well behind already).


Well Mclaren showed nothing like RBR did with an under powered engine, in fact they so much touted their chassis to the extent people were saying podiums possible this year.

Exactly what was true about the chassis last year, outside of what Mclaren said themselves.


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 04, 2018 8:38 pm 
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Rockie wrote:
mds wrote:
Rockie wrote:
If the Honda was still in the Mclaren you will be arguing with it being down on power.


That's not necessarily true. This is another year and with the Honda they would have probably been further back, and they would probably have showed worse results than 2017.

I mean, you give 2014 as an example and I agree RBR did wonders with it, but even then it was clear enough that the Renault was underpowered hugely when compared to the Mercedes. How did we know? How could one prove the Renault was down on power? How could one prove that the Renault, while unreliable, wasn't the very fastest and the RBR>STR>Caterham chassis didn't go from bad to worse to utterly terrible?
That's my point - we know the Renault wasn't just unreliable but also slow, and the RB10 was an incredibly good car.

Likewise we do not need to revise 2017 and all of a sudden start claiming the Honda wasn't down on power against all other PU's. It was, and the quality of the MCL33 doesn't change that.

Now I wouldn't call the MCL32 an incredibly good car, but it had its moments and it was definitely held back by the Honda.
What is now becoming apparent is that Honda have done some good work over the winter and McLaren have not done a good enough job on their side. But that doesn't mean that what was true last year suddenly changes.

Meanwhile STR have 3 points finishes (as compared to 8 last year at this point), are eighth in the standings and are getting reeled in by Sauber (and if it wasn't for the fourth place outlier they'd be well behind already).


Well Mclaren showed nothing like RBR did with an under powered engine, in fact they so much touted their chassis to the extent people were saying podiums possible this year.

Exactly what was true about the chassis last year, outside of what Mclaren said themselves.


There's variations of power deficits though and the amount of power Renault was down doesn't necessarily equate to the amount of power Honda was down. Also, last year we had 3 pretty mature power units (even if the Renault was still somewhat down) while back in 2014 the Ferrari was severely lacking as well. So there were more chances for when Mercedes faltered.

You can't just lump everything together and equate everything to each other.

Like I said, I'm not saying the MCL32 was at the same relative level the RB10 was back then, but I don't think it was a definitive disaster either and it was held back by the Honda PU that was lacking on the power front as well.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 04, 2018 10:24 pm 
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I honestly think that the younger generation of drivers might kill Ricciardo's championship ambitions.

Verstappen is the main man for Red Bull. He's getting paid more than Ricciardo as Red Bull value him higher. He's also got age on his side, so RB-Honda doesn't need to be great immediately for Max.

Ricciardo was a serious candidate to take over Raikkonen's seat after his sensational win in China. However, since then Leclerc has been a revelation at Sauber, and it looks like Ferrari are going to promote him next year.

I think Mercedes will also look inside when Lewis retires. Although the hype around Ocon has cooled down recently, he is much more convincing against Perez this year than last year. Mercedes also have 20 year old George Russell who is currently tearing it up in Formula 2.

What other options are there? Renault? McLaren? All big risks.

Verstappen, Leclerc, Ocon and Russell are all 20-21 while Ricciardo is 29. I predict that these younger drivers are going to take over Formula 1 after Lewis and Seb call it day, and Ricciardo might be crowded out and never get a real shot at a WDC.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 05, 2018 12:20 am 
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KingVoid wrote:
I honestly think that the younger generation of drivers might kill Ricciardo's championship ambitions.

Verstappen is the main man for Red Bull. He's getting paid more than Ricciardo as Red Bull value him higher. He's also got age on his side, so RB-Honda doesn't need to be great immediately for Max.

Ricciardo was a serious candidate to take over Raikkonen's seat after his sensational win in China. However, since then Leclerc has been a revelation at Sauber, and it looks like Ferrari are going to promote him next year.

I think Mercedes will also look inside when Lewis retires. Although the hype around Ocon has cooled down recently, he is much more convincing against Perez this year than last year. Mercedes also have 20 year old George Russell who is currently tearing it up in Formula 2.

What other options are there? Renault? McLaren? All big risks.

Verstappen, Leclerc, Ocon and Russell are all 20-21 while Ricciardo is 29. I predict that these younger drivers are going to take over Formula 1 after Lewis and Seb call it day, and Ricciardo might be crowded out and never get a real shot at a WDC.

I'm getting that vibe too. Hamilton has more or less said there's no room for him at Merc. And now with reports of Ferrari promoting Leclerc next year, his best option is to stay at Max's team. He's getting skipped and it sucks

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 05, 2018 12:58 am 
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sandman1347 wrote:
I think Max has already gained the upper hand over Daniel. Max's rocky start to the season has masked that but even in Daniel's shiniest moment (the win in China) you'd have to say that, if not for mistakes, Max would have won that race.


I don't like arguments that contain the word "if". "If this didn't happen then this would have happened". Motorsport provides plenty of bumps in the road. There's much more to it than putting a quick lap together.

The first part of being a successful racing driver is keeping the car on the track being able to make passes and take wins. Max failed to do so. He does not have the same overtaking ability as Daniel or the level of race-craft and I'm not sure he ever will.

All of Max's value is in his lap time. There's no argument he has a slight edge there, but it's no use if he crashes into another car when he needs to make a pass for the win.

Daniel made 4 clean, decisive passes in China (including on 3 world champions). This was a display of a driver who had a car with winning pace under him and he did the job clinically to take the maximum result.

Max had every chance to win that race, but made 2 mistakes. One which let Ricciardo past and another which put Max out of reach of a result. He looked amateur compared to Ricciardo that day.

I think Ricciardo would be a proper title contender in a consistently fast car, no matter who his teammate was.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 05, 2018 4:10 am 
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oz_karter wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
I think Max has already gained the upper hand over Daniel. Max's rocky start to the season has masked that but even in Daniel's shiniest moment (the win in China) you'd have to say that, if not for mistakes, Max would have won that race.


I don't like arguments that contain the word "if". "If this didn't happen then this would have happened". Motorsport provides plenty of bumps in the road. There's much more to it than putting a quick lap together.

The first part of being a successful racing driver is keeping the car on the track being able to make passes and take wins. Max failed to do so. He does not have the same overtaking ability as Daniel or the level of race-craft and I'm not sure he ever will.

All of Max's value is in his lap time. There's no argument he has a slight edge there, but it's no use if he crashes into another car when he needs to make a pass for the win.

Daniel made 4 clean, decisive passes in China (including on 3 world champions). This was a display of a driver who had a car with winning pace under him and he did the job clinically to take the maximum result.

Max had every chance to win that race, but made 2 mistakes. One which let Ricciardo past and another which put Max out of reach of a result. He looked amateur compared to Ricciardo that day.

I think Ricciardo would be a proper title contender in a consistently fast car, no matter who his teammate was.

I don't disagree with any of that. From a holistic standpoint, Daniel has certainly out-performed Max. Max made a lot more mistakes and didn't maximize his chances in the first 5-6 races of the season. Daniel performed more reliably and intelligently and he executed when opportunities presented themselves. Of that there can be no doubt.

That was only the first few races of the season though. My point was that Max has the higher ceiling and that, as a 20 year old, he probably makes more errors now than he will in the future. I think he'll clean up his act in terms of mistakes and when he does, being a bit quicker will make all the difference. More importantly, if Red Bull have the best car in the future, a lot of those errors will disappear regardless of what happens with max's development because Max will be on pole and not in the pack.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 05, 2018 5:35 am 
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KingVoid wrote:
Verstappen is the main man for Red Bull. He's getting paid more than Ricciardo as Red Bull value him higher.


One thing about this: I'm pretty sure that up until now, including this season, he's being paid less than Ricciardo and now only in his new contract for next year has been able to raise his pay. And with Ricciardo not having negotiated a new contract yet this comparison isn't really a fair one.

Quote:
Ricciardo was a serious candidate to take over Raikkonen's seat after his sensational win in China.


I don't know about this either. I think fans had him as a serious candidate but I'm not sure Ferrari ever thought about it the same way.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 05, 2018 5:40 am 
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oz_karter wrote:
The first part of being a successful racing driver is keeping the car on the track being able to make passes and take wins. Max failed to do so. He does not have the same overtaking ability as Daniel or the level of race-craft and I'm not sure he ever will.


Max has actually done a serious number of magnificent overtakes, even back when he was at Toro Rosso. He's done a fair number of comeback races that were laced with clean and decisive overtakes. I think you're confusing a bad spell with not having the same overtaking ability.

Ricciardo has overcooked his overtaking at times just as well and has relied on the other to not crash. Think Vettel/Spain/2016, Rosberg/Hungary/2016.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 05, 2018 6:00 am 
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mds wrote:
KingVoid wrote:
Verstappen is the main man for Red Bull. He's getting paid more than Ricciardo as Red Bull value him higher.

One thing about this: I'm pretty sure that up until now, including this season, he's being paid less than Ricciardo and now only in his new contract for next year has been able to raise his pay. And with Ricciardo not having negotiated a new contract yet this comparison isn't really a fair one.


One issue giving Ricciardo pause at Red Bull is his knowledge that team-mate Max Verstappen was given a lucrative new contract last autumn. It made the 20-year-old the third best-paid driver in F1, behind Hamilton and Vettel, earning more than the $25m salary McLaren pay to two-time world champion Fernando Alonso. Asked whether the 29-year-old would get equal money to Verstappen, Horner said each had their own value.

https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/44703724


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 05, 2018 6:10 am 
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KingVoid wrote:
mds wrote:
KingVoid wrote:
Verstappen is the main man for Red Bull. He's getting paid more than Ricciardo as Red Bull value him higher.

One thing about this: I'm pretty sure that up until now, including this season, he's being paid less than Ricciardo and now only in his new contract for next year has been able to raise his pay. And with Ricciardo not having negotiated a new contract yet this comparison isn't really a fair one.


One issue giving Ricciardo pause at Red Bull is his knowledge that team-mate Max Verstappen was given a lucrative new contract last autumn. It made the 20-year-old the third best-paid driver in F1, behind Hamilton and Vettel, earning more than the $25m salary McLaren pay to two-time world champion Fernando Alonso. Asked whether the 29-year-old would get equal money to Verstappen, Horner said each had their own value.

https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/44703724


The bold bit, of course, doesn't mean they value Ricciardo less per sé, it's just another way of saying "we'll sort it out between ourselves, I'm not going to tellt he press what he's going to get".

I was a year wrong but my main reasoning remains: Ricciardo is being paid what he has negotiated for this contract, Verstappen has renegotiated and is already in a new contract. We'll see who is valued in which way once Ricciardo signs a new deal.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 05, 2018 6:20 am 
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mds wrote:
KingVoid wrote:
mds wrote:
KingVoid wrote:
Verstappen is the main man for Red Bull. He's getting paid more than Ricciardo as Red Bull value him higher.

One thing about this: I'm pretty sure that up until now, including this season, he's being paid less than Ricciardo and now only in his new contract for next year has been able to raise his pay. And with Ricciardo not having negotiated a new contract yet this comparison isn't really a fair one.


One issue giving Ricciardo pause at Red Bull is his knowledge that team-mate Max Verstappen was given a lucrative new contract last autumn. It made the 20-year-old the third best-paid driver in F1, behind Hamilton and Vettel, earning more than the $25m salary McLaren pay to two-time world champion Fernando Alonso. Asked whether the 29-year-old would get equal money to Verstappen, Horner said each had their own value.

https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/44703724


The bold bit, of course, doesn't mean they value Ricciardo less per sé, it's just another way of saying "we'll sort it out between ourselves, I'm not going to tellt he press what he's going to get".

I was a year wrong but my main reasoning remains: Ricciardo is being paid what he has negotiated for this contract, Verstappen has renegotiated and is already in a new contract. We'll see who is valued in which way once Ricciardo signs a new deal.


We will, and like I've said before, Ricciardo won't get the amount of money they pay Max, probably not even close. It doesn't matter who's better or faster or scores more points or whatever. Mercedes and Ferrari were actively flirting with Max. Mercedes even had talks with him and his dad:

https://www.gpfans.com/en/articles/1885 ... erstappen/

Red Bull needed to act fast and decisively. They don't have to pay serious money for Ricciardo, because no other top team is interested in Ricciardo. They won't have to match Max' salary, why would they?


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 05, 2018 6:32 am 
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Llotyhy wrote:
They won't have to match Max' salary, why would they?


Depends. If they want to build out a longer term relationship with him then they can't squeeze him out like a lemon now, because that will leave a bad aftertaste for Dan, affecting his loyalty, and then he might jump ship as soon as he gets a chance for it.

Mind you, I'm not saying he'll get what Max gets. Just saying that him being paid less now is more a result of the previous contract negotiations and less of the way they value him now.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 05, 2018 8:03 am 
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mds wrote:
Llotyhy wrote:
They won't have to match Max' salary, why would they?


Depends. If they want to build out a longer term relationship with him then they can't squeeze him out like a lemon now, because that will leave a bad aftertaste for Dan, affecting his loyalty, and then he might jump ship as soon as he gets a chance for it.

Mind you, I'm not saying he'll get what Max gets. Just saying that him being paid less now is more a result of the previous contract negotiations and less of the way they value him now.

It really couldn't have worked out worse for him. His form slump has coincided with not just Verstappen's resurgence but Leclerc's arrival so he's basically had to go back to Horner and Marko cap in hand. Knowing Red Bull he will probably sign on to a lower base than Max but with some extra performance bonuses... How things can change in a month.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 05, 2018 2:25 pm 
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Moved post discussing inter team battles and reliability to appropriate thread.

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 06, 2018 9:13 pm 
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The rumours were fairly strong at the beginning of the year that Ricciardo would move to Ferrari in 2019. That seems to have died down a lot in more recent months but I still think there is a big chance that he will finish up there. As an F1 driver he fits the profile of the type of driver Ferrari like to have in their car. He is an experienced, mature, sensible, marketable driver who is fast and great at overtaking. That means he scores points. He is also out of contract at the end of the year. I do not think there is another driver on the grid who fits the typical Ferrari profile so well. The fact that he has Italian heritage on both sides of his family is just an accidental plus. Would he accept a Ferrari offer? Surely he can see that Verstappen is “the chosen one” at Red Bull, and that in any situation where Red Bull has a choice the name Ricciardo is not the first one that spings to their lips.


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 07, 2018 4:51 am 
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mcdo wrote:
Zoue wrote:
mcdo wrote:
Rockie wrote:
Zoue wrote:
I've said it before and I'll say it again: it makes zero sense for Dan to leave Red Bull at the moment. They are improving practically with every race and once again look like they have the best chassis, even overcoming their PU deficit in races. With the new engine regulations around the corner which are supposed to equalise the engines to a certain extent, you'd have to put money on Red Bull being at the front again sooner rather than later


Asides from this which is the most important point, should he go to Mercedes or Ferrari and get beat by either Hamilton or Vettel, especially Vettel it will be the beginning of the end for him.

I'd bet my house it wouldn't happen. Raikkonen is too close to Vettel for me to think Dan wouldn't beat Seb again

Only in qualifying. You wouldn't call them close in the race

Two races have passed since I made that statement. Both races support my argument. I don't think Kimi has Seb's race pace. But such things don't matter when Seb is getting himself into the situations he has - even if I think the calls against him have been harsh. I just think Dan is another level above Kimi and Seb would be losing out against him. Again.


This is something that people have stated over the years, but I see nothing to support the idea that Dan is a level above. Dan has never been in a situation where he is legitimately fighting for the championship. He is consistently in a position where it is possible, but not probable. So he can take great risks and make dicey moves without risking too much. I think until he is in a true battle for the title, we will not be able to judge him comparatively.

That said, I do believe that RB is his best bet. He will have to deal with Max, but the team will come about again. They have a lot of talent in the garage. It would be great for Ricciardo if he is there when that happens.


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 07, 2018 6:39 am 
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By the time Red Bull have a WDC capable car again (not before 2020), Verstappen will have established a clear and vital edge over Ricciardo.

That’s just my opinion.


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:44 pm 
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KingVoid wrote:
By the time Red Bull have a WDC capable car again (not before 2020), Verstappen will have established a clear and vital edge over Ricciardo.

That’s just my opinion.


That is very possible. But again, I'd like to see what happens when they are fighting for a championship. That materially changes things, imo.


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 07, 2018 9:40 pm 
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I honestly think Ricciardo has outplayed himself. Either him or his team I don't know. But I reckon Red Bull played it well. Ricciardo now needs them more than they need him. Still think Ricciardo would have been fantastic at Ferrari, so can only assume they still want Vettel unthreatened to get the best out if him. Shame. Also still struggling to believe Ferrari will sign someone as inexperienced as Leclerc.

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 08, 2018 4:14 pm 
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not sure what is going on with ricciardo and red bull after watching his post race interview. i would guess now he will go to renault if they offer something.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 08, 2018 5:22 pm 
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pc27b wrote:
not sure what is going on with ricciardo and red bull after watching his post race interview. i would guess now he will go to renault if they offer something.


What did he say?


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 08, 2018 5:35 pm 
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bourbon19 wrote:
pc27b wrote:
not sure what is going on with ricciardo and red bull after watching his post race interview. i would guess now he will go to renault if they offer something.


What did he say?


Just frustrated they suddenly switched strategy and split strategies with Max just as he got in DRS range of Max.

Clearly just Red Bull getting rid of him Webber style rather than risk another Baku. Very weak of Red Bull imo and he's rightly frustrated.

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:27 pm 
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Lotus49 wrote:
bourbon19 wrote:
pc27b wrote:
not sure what is going on with ricciardo and red bull after watching his post race interview. i would guess now he will go to renault if they offer something.

What did he say?

Just frustrated they suddenly switched strategy and split strategies with Max just as he got in DRS range of Max.

Clearly just Red Bull getting rid of him Webber style rather than risk another Baku. Very weak of Red Bull imo and he's rightly frustrated.

There's some of that, sure, but equally without the safety car I think he would have undercut Max and ultimately finished ahead. The medium - even with the safety car - had trouble going as long as Max was trying to take them.

On the other hand, it could easily be read as Red Bull being unwilling to see Max overtaken on track by his teammate...

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