Remmirath wrote:
I'd say both have been driving well this year, and both have had their share of bad luck. I think it would be close between them. I'd give a slight edge at the moment to Bottas for generally better qualifying pace, but I could easily see it going either way. +/- five points, flip a coin.
I also agree with the others who have said that this wouldn't even be a question comparing Raikkonen-ten-years-ago with Bottas-of-the-present, but even were it a question, it would be a different one.
Well, kimi has had lucky cirsumstances in terms of getting a podium several times this year. Bottas hasn't really had that. So I think that if they had had equal luck, Bottas would probably be a fair way ahaed. Kimi retired in Bahrain and Spain. I'd say he lost up to 30 points in these two races if I'm being generous. But the level of good fortune he's had compared to Bottas is pretty big.
In China, his strategy was a bit unfair towards him, but he got overtaken by a Red Bull at the start anyway. Later on, he was in 6th. With the circumstances that happened with Red Bull at the end, I think 5th or 6th was the highest he would likely finish. But Vettel gets damaged and knocked down by Verstappen. Kimi gains 3 places. Finished 3rd. That has to be said it was a bit lucky. While Bottas looked to have done enough work himself by getting past Kimi at the start and then putting in a mighty outlap and getting past vettel. Then Bottas's bad luck hit him and he lost as many points as kimi likely gained.
In Baku, Kimi gains 2 places when the Red Bulls crash. Near the end of the race Kimi gets past Vettel who messes his race up. Then gets past Bottas with a puncture. Basically, Kimi gained about 10 points due to good fortune. While Bottas lost 25. While admittedly, the win will have been a little lucky for Bottas as 2nd was looking more likely if Vettel didn't mess up.
Spain wasn't a great race for Bottas. All he needes was a better start and slightly better defending into the first corner then he may have managed to keep Vettel behind. Kimi I'd say most likely will have been 4th here if not for his retirement.
In France Bottas gets knocked back and looses out on an extra 12 points as 2nd will have been very likely. While Kimi has another weak qualifying in 6th. He gains positions on Vettel and Bottas. Then Ricciardo later on has a problem which was slowing him down. And Kimi was easily able to get him too. Without Vettel's, Bottas's race getting messed up and Ricciardo's issue, I think it will have been 6th again for Kimi. Gained another podium and an extra 7 points due to good fortune.
I'll give Kimi some credit for having a great fight over the first lap of Austria. He looked good there. But Verstappen soon got past (although some thing in an unfair way) I think I partially agree. But Ricciardo also got past him cleanly later on. Bottas had retired, then Hamilton, then Ricciardo. Despite Kimi losing places himself, he still finished higher than he started. Was also possibly aided a bit by Vettel's mistake in qualifying resulting in a grid penalty. Again, would have very likely been several places lower. 5th and if not for Vettels mistake in qualifying probably 6th. So lets say he probably gained about 8 points.
Then In the latest race (Britain). Bottas made a much better start, and then kimi just couldn't get past verstappen. Bottas looked much better than Kimi here. And then Bottas's strategy fell against him. If Mercedes decided to pit, Bottas will have certainly been 2nd or at worst 3rd. Kimi gained another position and although it was a proper overtake, he certainly didn't deserve that podium over Bottas.
So, as strange as this may sound, I think Kimi has easily gained as many points due to good fortune rather than good racing as he's lost due to bad luck. Like I said earlier, I'd say a maximum of 30 points is probably what he's lost down to retirements. And when I add up what I think he's gained due to things going wrong for others, it adds up to just over 30.
Where as Bottas's situation is rather different. He likely lost 7 in China, 25 in Baku, 12 in France and 18 in Austria (that is if Mercedes didn't do to Bottas what they did to Hamilton. I guess it could then have potentially been even more points lost or maybe less too. Then if things hadn't gone as they did in Britain, he likely would had an extra 3 or even 6 points. Lets say I've been a little too generous towards Bottas with the amount of points he's missed out on and just say around 50. That is still a lot more than Kimi and can anyone really think what good fortune Bottas has had to make up for any of the points he's missed out on? As I've explained, Kimi has definitely had some of this. Not sure if Bottas does. The only sign of good luck was the safety car helping him in Baku for a win until the worst luck of the season got to him.
I honestly think that a more realistic gap between them this year if things had been equal could well be over 60 or 70 points.
I may sound like I'm being harsh on Kimi here. But that said, I still think he's easily good enough for F1, and even still good enough for Ferrari. Even though I think lost of his results have looked better than his performances, the fact is, he's getting points for the team reasonably well when Vettel has had issues. But at this stage, I don't think Bottas is just a little better. He's now a lot better.
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If any drivers were lucky that day, it was Kimi for gaining 4 places and a 2nd place due to retirements and Hamilton getting a win from a likely 3rd. Even without the retirement, Bottas didn't really gain that much in terms of positions compared to others that day.9 on the drivers of the day page, he got 38 votes vs for Vettel. I'm certain Vettel would have got significantly more votes than he did if not for his mistake. And I think as I said, it looks most respect Bottas's drive more than you do. 
