planetf1.com

I think he should have stayed at Red Bull, I personally believe that he is better than Verstappen. He will have a tough time against the Hulk and fade into obscurity.

Dan just had enough. He is bringing more points to the team and despite that he was going to get paycut while his teammate got lucrative contract. Renault is very serious about F1, I believe in 2 years it can challenge for wins on regular basis.

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eeee

This whole 'running away from Max' thing smacks me as being utter BS. If my employer gave my colleague three times my salary for doing the same job because 'they see more potential' in him... I would be out the door too.

Staying at Red Bull was a one way ticket to nowhere. With the way things were playing out the guy would be on the back foot the whole time, trying to work out when he was being shafted, how and by whom... how can you expect someone to give their all while you're stabbing them in the back (or they percieve that you are).

As it stands he will feel he is valued at Renault, but he will need to beat Hulk convincingly otherwise Nico might want to know where his $20m is. So, while I don't think he will win any races with Renault in the short term, as he can't get into a Merc or Ferrari I don't think the chance to win a race here and there is necessarily worth racing for Red Bull and underperforming because you know you're their number 2 driver.

Verstappen reminds me of Schumacher, not in his talent, but just in the way you could tell MS was going to rule F1 even before he did. It was inevitable and it seemed like everyone knew it and wanted it to happen because it would be great for business. When you've got that kind of hype behind you it puts you in a very strong place mentally and it destroys your team mates.

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Shoot999: "And anyone who puts a Y on the end of his name as a nickname should be punched in the face repeatedly."

They've already significantly increased their workforce from ~450 to ~650 people too. That to me is a sign of their real commitment to a future in F1. They will continue to improve.

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PF1 Pick 10 Competition:
- 3 victories (USA '17, USA '16, Mexico '16),
- 6 podiums
- 2013 Rookie of the Year
- 2014 Championship 6th position
- 2016 Championship 9th position

He will pick up some podiums and maybe even 3 wins over the 2 seasons. He will go to Ferrari at the end of his contract unless Renault end up producing a WDC winning car.

How can he better than Verstappen but then face a tough time against the Hulk, that doesn't really make any sense?

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: Currently 8th

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (5)

He probably would have done if he had stayed at Red Bull, doubtful he will do that in the Renault.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: Currently 8th

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (5)

Sure, if you think Hulk is better than Verstappen. Not saying I do, but if you believe that then it makes perfect sense.

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PF1 PICK 10 COMPETITION (3 wins, 12 podiums): 2017: 19th| 2016: 3rd| 2015: 4th
PF1 TOP THREE TEAM CHAMPIONSHIP (No Limit Excedrin Racing): 2017: 2nd| 2015: 1st
AUTOSPORT GP PREDICTOR: 2017 United States Champion! (world #2)

I dont think he will ever be WDC now.

A lot depends on that Honda engine?.... If RB get a lot of DNF's then Renault will slot in and score points.

As already pointed out, he will lose some of his reputation if Hulk outperforms him.

Renault isn't fighting for third next year. It would be a miracle if Redbull is that bad or if Renault have improved that much. My money is on Redbull retaining third even with the Honda.

It doesn't really make any sense to believe that.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: Currently 8th

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (5)

It not's just a case of slotting in though it's hoping that 4 faster cars don't finish to get on the podium and as for wins make that 6 cars not finishing, Red Bull just don't get wins and podiums by being lucky they are many times able to do that on merit against the Mercs and Ferraris.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: Currently 8th

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (5)

I think that is way too early to say.
He has a 2 year deal with Renault, that also ties in with Hamilton, Vettel and Max.
So all will be free agents going into 2021.

So in 2021 Dan could have a shot at being at Merc or Ferrari, or quite possibly going back to Red Bull when Max switches teams. Or if Renault comes good, they will probably offer him huge money to stay on.

All he has to do is beat Hulk and his reputation should stay in tact.
He rarely makes mistakes and seems to capitalise when others do.
And he is only 29, so could have another 10 years in F1 if he wanted to.

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I support: Ricciardo
I also like: Perez, Hulk, Sainz, Button and Alonso
I respect: Ham, Vettel and Max

Unsuccessfully relatively speaking as I think Honda is improving quicker than Renault and Red Bull can be relied upon to build the best chassis almost by default lately. However I don't blame him as Red Bull clearly have not given him the respect and money he deserves as his performances and points total since 2014 clearly shows he's a No.1 driver. He will be quicker than Hulk and of course overtake better. It may be a good move in the long run for his standing if Ferrari or Mercedes ever want to reconsider. Red Bull have bet the farm on Verstappen but he has yet to prove he is the finished article like Ricciardo.

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Kimi: "Come on, get the McLaren out of the way!”

I still think he's better off away from Max and the Red Bull Max hype machine.

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Shoot999: "And anyone who puts a Y on the end of his name as a nickname should be punched in the face repeatedly."

Ricciardo said he wants to be a world champion, so team that finishes 3rd isn't good enough for him. He sees Renault as a better team in a long run and if Renault underperforms he can seek Mercedes or Ferrari seat in 2021.

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eeee

Yes, that's probably true, but that's only because Honda started out so far behind everybody else. It's only natural for the worst performing supplier to improve at a greater rate than the better performing ones - because there's so much more they can do to find more.

Honda is still by some margin the worst engine, and there's been nothing since they came back to suggest 2019 will be any sort of improvement for them.

Best of luck for Honda - they shouldn't expect any niceties from Red Bull if they're not matching the top suppliers. We saw how Red Bull was more than happy to slag off Renault for years despite them winning World Championships.

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If the aero is going to be less complicated from 2019 - surely that will hurt RBR more than other teams - meaning that engine (primarily) and driver performance will be key - that may be a factor as well

Your 'money is on Redbull retaining third even this the Honda' seems to clearly indicate you do not expect every one to agree.

But despite Redbull not being certain to be third, you consider Renault, currently fourth, will not fight for that place.

Perhaps they are hiring Ricciardo and declaring "acutally we are happy to stay in our current position so we have no intention to fight for third next year", but I doubt it. I think they may actually be planning to at least fight to be third.

The gaps too big. Don't forget as well that whilst Renault are 4th in the WCC they are probably only 5th quickest.

I think it's a good move from Dan, he is certainly quick and it will be interesting to see him and Nico Hulkenburg head to head. I think Dan will be quicker and then for 2020 they will replace Hulk with Ocon….

Is it any more arguable looking at how they've both dealt with Sainz though? I don't have any data but just gut instinct says it must be at least similar otherwise Hulk is getting a bit too much credit for this year and Sainz a bit unfairly judged just going on comments I've read around forums as going by that you'd think this was more one sided than Max-Sainz was.

Hulk being more difficult than Max doesn't ring true for me either on gut reaction but if the stats suggest it then who knows?

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"Clark came through at the end of the first lap so far ahead that we in the pits were convinced that the rest of the field must have been wiped out in an accident."
-Eddie Dennis, describing the dominance of Jim Clark in the Lotus 49 at Spa 1967

I’d say it’s not an exact 1:1 comparison. Max and Carlos were both rookies in their first year and Max moved up mid-season the following year.

I don’t think Carlos would compare against Max as well now, and I think that Hulk has him slightly in the shade so far shows that he hasn’t progressed as much as Max has.

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{Insert clever sig line here}

Max had one year in Formula racing experience, Sainz had five. Even then, Max was quicker. Sainz would be absolutely obliterated now.

On topic: Unsuccessfully. I think it's a weird decision and I'm even going to make the call that Ricciardo will never win another F1 race (at least after this season).

One thing, if we think who was the last team to win a Grand Prix that wasn't Ferrari, Mercedes or Red Bull.... it was Renault wasn't it? I can't seem to find a nice simple list of winners to confirm this without trawling through endless pages of results, but I'm guessing it was... or if it wasn't it was the last team to be credible challengers (when Kimi was there). It's not like Dan has signed for Force India, Renault have won before and are definitely the only option outside of the top three.

I wonder how many seasons it takes before a driver learns to be pragmatic? So few guys actually win races, and even fewer win championships, I know the fans want their driver to have the 'win at all costs' mentality, but realistically, if you were in their shoes you would have to learn to accept that maybe it's not going to be you - but maybe you can still have a good career and make yourself a lot of money. I don't think there's any shame in that.

And you may take the view that in that case you need to get out and let someone with the right attitude take your seat - but that's not how the world works. That comes from the same idealistic viewpoint as people on music forums who think that bands that change their musical style should change their name - as if the name isn't a valuable commodity in itself.

So inevitably you get these drivers like Barrichello who are good enough to sit in a top car and will make lots of money and are still 'star names' in the sport, but who nobody genuinely believes is going to be a WDC.

Daniel is definitely taking a risk, but it seems to me he was damned if he stayed anyway. Maybe he's starting to see that the chances of him becoming WDC are receding, because the WDC winning cars aren't available to him. So does he drive himself mad fretting about it, or readjust his ambitions?

Let's be honest, Alonso is in the same place - okay he's already won his titles, but did he ever really believe he was going to win with Honda/McLaren? Or did he just think, you know what - I'm not going to get in a Merc or a Ferrari, let's make a huge pile of cash getting paid to drive racing cars really fast, it'll still be fun (well...) and who knows maybe something will come up in a couple of years.

I mean you have to wonder at the motivation of guys like Alonso and Kimi, not that I question their application, but they've been to the top of the mountain and something keeps them hanging around even though they must know they aren't going to get there again. If you were them and you still enjoyed the buzz, wouldn't you stick around and get all the cash you can? Aren't they just capitalizing on their reputation and the championship(s) they won?

I just think some people have a more realistic view than others, and there must come a point where you roll around to Australia for the nth time and think, stop kidding yourself... it ain't going to happen, just enjoy it.

I wonder if Hamilton would have become the great that he has if he hadn't won that first WDC in 2008? If it had taken him seven years to win. Would he have been able to keep the belief alive or would he have accepted that it wasn't going to work out for him?

Actually, that's a good point - who has had the longest career prior to winning a WDC? Button must be in with a shout for that one...

The problem with that is that if it takes you so long to become a WDC, the fans automatically wonder why and then they come to the conclusion that it's not you - it's the car. As if that was any different for any driver...

Say Renault come out with a world beater of a car in 2021 and Ricciardo wins the title over Hulk. How will people react to that? I think it will be another case of 'Oh he only won because he was in the right car at the right time', completely ignoring the fact that Vettel was in Red Bull at the right time, Hamilton was in Mercedes at the right time, Mansell was in Williams at the right time, Hill was in Williams at the right time... Villeneuve was in Williams at the right time.

Of course to go back to my previous example, Barrichello was in the right car at the right time but he still didn't get the job done. I think we quickly forget in these times of inter-team championship battles how many times a WDC has only had to beat a team mate... and with that in mind, why would Dan stay at a team where he probably thinks that even if by some miracle they got a dominant car, he would lose out to Max (either because Max is better or because he thinks the team would engineer a Max WDC).

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Shoot999: "And anyone who puts a Y on the end of his name as a nickname should be punched in the face repeatedly."

I agree with this.
Though I think Dan still has a firm belief that he can win a WDC.
I think he feels that while he couldn't get a seat at Merc or Ferrari, moving to a team where he can be the king of his own sandbox (so to speak) was a much better option then equal status.
I think he felt it was time for a pay rise and a chance at a team that will be willing to build around him rather the sitback and take the risk of being edged into a number 2 role by a team mate who is younger, slightly faster and has an incredible amount of hype around him.

Why not move? Honda and rbr are a slim chance to produce a title winner in the next two seasons.
may as well settle down for the long haul and establish the Renault works outfit around himself and hope come 2021 they can produce the goods.

Im not certain he's resigned himself to the history books of deserving but unable to achieve a WDC driver just yet.


edit: Also I think Lotus was the last non Merc, Ferrari, rbr team to win a race.. not sure though.

I voted unsuccessful, I hope I am wrong. I fear he will wallow in the midfield for the balance of his career. I don't blame him though. Good luck Danny.

Ah, you're right - Kimi drove for Lotus not Renault - although it was the same 'team'.

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Shoot999: "And anyone who puts a Y on the end of his name as a nickname should be punched in the face repeatedly."

When Verstappen was paired with Sainz it was only his second season in car racing and he was only 17 years old, you can't honestly believe that he was close to his ultimate level?

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PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: Currently 8th

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (5)

Which is what you would probably expect given that Sainz had 5 seasons of car racing before he joined F1 as opposed to just 1 season for Verstappen.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: Currently 8th

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (5)

Of course I don't expect everyone to agree since I was replying to a post that suggested that Renault could be third.

If you want to believe that Renault can get third go ahead, but you probably are not paying enough attention to the current gap between Renault and Redbull.

As for the last paragraph of your post; every team aspires to greater things, it doesn't mean it is realistic or that it will pan out.

While perhaps it's optimistic to expect them to take the step up next year, Renault have made impressive strides in the last few years.

In 2014 (after, I believe, they suffered an enormous loss of funding - somebody more knowledgeable please fill me in here), they scored a lowly 10 points. In 2015 they scored 78. In 2016 (maybe this is when they suffered the funding cut?) they fell back to eight points in the season. Since then it's just been up. In 2017 they went to 57 points, and at half-way in 2018 they've already blown beyond that to have 82 points.

In 2015 Red Bull scored 187 points, or roughly double what Renault have now (at half-way into the season). It'll take a big step, and rely on Red Bull to lose a bit of pace with Honda (which I predict). A risk? Yes. Impossible? Far from it.

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Horner says in the podcast that Dan didn't want to play a supporting role. That in itself sums it up for me.

you didn't hear the rest of the podcast, where Horner was saying Max was maybe getting too strong for him?

Of course not but then neither was Sainz of course. I was just asking what the cross comparison data would suggest as I know you have the data.

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"Clark came through at the end of the first lap so far ahead that we in the pits were convinced that the rest of the field must have been wiped out in an accident."
-Eddie Dennis, describing the dominance of Jim Clark in the Lotus 49 at Spa 1967

An aero rules shake up typically favours the teams that are best at outside the box thinking - and that is more often than not the team who has Adrian Newey. I think its reasonable to say that in all likelihood the Red Bull will continue to have the best chassis and it will all hang on the Honda engine. Dan is never ever going to win a championship with the Renault works time. Red Bull Honda... well its unlikely, but you never know.

It would say that the Hulk is quicker than Vertstappen and this is why I take rookie data with a pinch of salt, in particular a rookie that came into F1 with just one season of car racing behind him.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: Currently 8th

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (5)

Maybe it was the case Dan was already playing a supporting role.

Did we already start to see this last year at the US Grand Prix when Red Bull kept it from Dan that Max was getting an engine upgrade,
and Dan only found out about it through the media?

Going for another Alonso,
...in that I think he'll win back to back world championships with Renault

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