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PostPosted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 2:39 pm 
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If you look at the mortality charts the disease is comparable to the flu in people under 60. If you are over 80 a 14.8% mortality rate is obviously alarming

If people over 60 self isolated (most don't have jobs) the world could just carry on as normal.

People keep saying health is more important than money, not sure they'll be singing the same tune when they are unemployed/bankrupt because businesses start collapsing

British government is doing nothing to stop the spread. People flying back from Milan to UK with no checks at all is unreal


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 2:44 pm 
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Zazu wrote:
If you look at the mortality charts the disease is comparable to the flu in people under 60. If you are over 80 a 14.8% mortality rate is obviously alarming

If people over 60 self isolated (most don't have jobs) the world could just carry on as normal.

People keep saying health is more important than money, not sure they'll be singing the same tune when they are unemployed/bankrupt because businesses start collapsing

British government is doing nothing to stop the spread. People flying back from Milan to UK with no checks at all is unreal

I'm not sure this is exactly correct. My colleague went in Milan 3 weeks ago and in the airport they were all scanned (the laser pointer that records temperature I believe). So they were taking some minimum measures back then (and that was even before the outbreak in Italy).


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 2:53 pm 
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They aren't testing at Heathrow or Manchester. Not sure about others. It was raised in the press conference with PM and health minister yesterday and they just said Italy stopped flights from China but still got it....

Austria banning events of more than 500 people and Spain football matches are going to be played behind closed doors.

I think there are going to be a lot of races behind closed doors. Doesn't really matter on TV but does if you have tickets 😭


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 5:19 pm 
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Zazu wrote:
If you look at the mortality charts the disease is comparable to the flu in people under 60. If you are over 80 a 14.8% mortality rate is obviously alarming

If people over 60 self isolated (most don't have jobs) the world could just carry on as normal.

People keep saying health is more important than money, not sure they'll be singing the same tune when they are unemployed/bankrupt because businesses start collapsing

British government is doing nothing to stop the spread. People flying back from Milan to UK with no checks at all is unreal

I know a family that's just come back to the UK after a skiing holiday in northern Italy, mother and daughter came back with cold symptoms, neither bothered reporting to a doctor to make sure they didn't have the virus and then lo and behold thought it a good thing to visit an old people's nursing home, the most vulnerable to the disease, quite disgusting really.

You have to wonder why they were not checked upon arrival back into the country, it doesn't give a lot of confidence that sufficient measures are really being taken in the UK.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:37 pm 
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The entire saga is comical.

They have confirmed cases of it in Melbourne, the state Premier has said theres going to be no issue with F1 or any other major sporting events....before adding its inevitable all schools will have to close at some point and entire workforces have to work from home.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:12 am 
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Yeah, it’s funny how Australia will ban travel from Italy from 6pm tonight (eve of f1)

Must some some good money coming in...


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:38 am 
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.

A typical "flu" will thrive in colder weather and die out in warm weather. Australia, being in the Southern Hemisphere, is in its summer now and hence in the warm (very warm in places) phase, so the Australians can afford to be a bit more laid back about its spread.

( This simple view doesn't explain Italy, which is (in general) that little bit warmer than much of the rest of Europe, but which is suffering. ) More details of the actual behaviour of the virus is required.

.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:06 am 
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Zazu wrote:
They aren't testing at Heathrow or Manchester. Not sure about others. It was raised in the press conference with PM and health minister yesterday and they just said Italy stopped flights from China but still got it....

Austria banning events of more than 500 people and Spain football matches are going to be played behind closed doors.

I think there are going to be a lot of races behind closed doors. Doesn't really matter on TV but does if you have tickets 😭


Oh, I forgot to mention, this wasn't in the UK, he was scanned in Milan. Not sure what the UK airports did/are doing, as I haven't been anywhere near them lately!


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:30 pm 
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Siao7 wrote:
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Deaths by drowning are a relative constant and do not grow exponentially.

The exponential growth of Covid-19 has only slowed in countries that have limited people movement in areas with severe outbreaks. And areas with more than a handful of cases usually end up becoming severe. The death rate also lags behind the infection rate.

This has all the makings of the millennium bug. People actually believe it was a fuss over nothing because the stock market didn't crash and planes stayed in the air when the year 2000 started. The reason that didn't happen was because of the hard work of the computer industry to make sure there wasn't a disaster.

Coronavirus will be the same. Either tens or hundreds of millions of people will die because precautions aren't taken, or precautions are taken and a much smaller number of people will die. In which case those same loud mouths will take to their keyboards and write "see, told you corona virus was a lot of panic about nothing"

Spot on Alien. Death by drowning is not normally contagious, so the comparison is not valid for me...

I do not understand people saying that we have more deaths from other things. So what? Should there be no measure what-so-ever? Fighting over toilet paper is unfortunately the way it goes with the crowd psychology and it paints a bad picture over this whole thing. But if we did nothing about it, the spread would surely have been far far worse than the numbers we have now.



I agree with these points I am sorry however I can't help but think the media pushed this "pandemic" scare on the world for reasons people will argue about, political for sure, global panic people turn to media for information, assurance etc in these days of media bias ( for and against) its a chance to gain respectability. The respectability issue may backfire as we find this virus while serious for elderly and sick people, not serious for typical people in fair health.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:55 pm 
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AstoriaisBACK wrote:
Siao7 wrote:
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Deaths by drowning are a relative constant and do not grow exponentially.

The exponential growth of Covid-19 has only slowed in countries that have limited people movement in areas with severe outbreaks. And areas with more than a handful of cases usually end up becoming severe. The death rate also lags behind the infection rate.

This has all the makings of the millennium bug. People actually believe it was a fuss over nothing because the stock market didn't crash and planes stayed in the air when the year 2000 started. The reason that didn't happen was because of the hard work of the computer industry to make sure there wasn't a disaster.

Coronavirus will be the same. Either tens or hundreds of millions of people will die because precautions aren't taken, or precautions are taken and a much smaller number of people will die. In which case those same loud mouths will take to their keyboards and write "see, told you corona virus was a lot of panic about nothing"

Spot on Alien. Death by drowning is not normally contagious, so the comparison is not valid for me...

I do not understand people saying that we have more deaths from other things. So what? Should there be no measure what-so-ever? Fighting over toilet paper is unfortunately the way it goes with the crowd psychology and it paints a bad picture over this whole thing. But if we did nothing about it, the spread would surely have been far far worse than the numbers we have now.



I agree with these points I am sorry however I can't help but think the media pushed this "pandemic" scare on the world for reasons people will argue about, political for sure, global panic people turn to media for information, assurance etc in these days of media bias ( for and against) its a chance to gain respectability. The respectability issue may backfire as we find this virus while serious for elderly and sick people, not serious for typical people in fair health.

I dont think its political or about respectability, I think that's looking a little too far into it personally.

They want clicks as that's ultimately what keeps them in business in these days of ad revenue domination, and the scary looking headline is more likely to get a click than the more measured headline.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:13 pm 
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AstoriaisBACK wrote:
Siao7 wrote:
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Deaths by drowning are a relative constant and do not grow exponentially.

The exponential growth of Covid-19 has only slowed in countries that have limited people movement in areas with severe outbreaks. And areas with more than a handful of cases usually end up becoming severe. The death rate also lags behind the infection rate.

This has all the makings of the millennium bug. People actually believe it was a fuss over nothing because the stock market didn't crash and planes stayed in the air when the year 2000 started. The reason that didn't happen was because of the hard work of the computer industry to make sure there wasn't a disaster.

Coronavirus will be the same. Either tens or hundreds of millions of people will die because precautions aren't taken, or precautions are taken and a much smaller number of people will die. In which case those same loud mouths will take to their keyboards and write "see, told you corona virus was a lot of panic about nothing"

Spot on Alien. Death by drowning is not normally contagious, so the comparison is not valid for me...

I do not understand people saying that we have more deaths from other things. So what? Should there be no measure what-so-ever? Fighting over toilet paper is unfortunately the way it goes with the crowd psychology and it paints a bad picture over this whole thing. But if we did nothing about it, the spread would surely have been far far worse than the numbers we have now.



I agree with these points I am sorry however I can't help but think the media pushed this "pandemic" scare on the world for reasons people will argue about, political for sure, global panic people turn to media for information, assurance etc in these days of media bias ( for and against) its a chance to gain respectability. The respectability issue may backfire as we find this virus while serious for elderly and sick people, not serious for typical people in fair health.


I do not know, but definitely it helps to inform people. I would like to know that there's an epidemic out there, but equally I wasn't surprised that people got scared and started fighting over toilet paper. It was a by-product, but better to be informed than not. Things like "do NOT just go to the hospital" make sense now, but if you weren't informed that you need to self isolate and call a number to report your symptoms and arrange for a test, you would just show up in the hospital and spread it everywhere like the poor guy in Italy.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:45 pm 
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F1Oz wrote:
How about we have Australia 1, Australia 2, Australia 3 and Australia 4? That would cover the first 4 races and they could probably cut some gaps if they don't have to pack up and move :)

One could trial a reverse grid even if points were not recorded - or some other options

Because F1 grand prix in Australia on March 15 is only just able to go ahead. Two weeks later, and you cant hold one in Australia either.


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:21 am 
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I hate to pessimistic but this season is going to be a mess.

Australia will go ahead, 3 team members are suffering from symptoms, i'd say probably unlikely to be Corona but how many team members are willing to take the risk going forwards. Most counties are seeing an exponential rise in cases, they either have to lock down (no F1) or cases spiral (No F1).

Even Zandvoort which they have said will go ahead has 503 cases:
https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/03/d ... es-by-one/

By the 4th of May, with the current growth of 15% per day they'd have over 1 million cases by then, which obviously won't happen, there will be a lockdown.

The next clear GP is Azerbaijan, with 15 cases but if they see the exponential growth by June it'll be in a lockdown.

I think the best hope for this season is back to back races by the end of the year.

I really do hope i'm proven wrong as i've been an F1 fan for 11 years and this was the first year I've got tickets to a race :(


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:04 am 
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Lukeism wrote:
I hate to pessimistic but this season is going to be a mess.

Australia will go ahead, 3 team members are suffering from symptoms, i'd say probably unlikely to be Corona but how many team members are willing to take the risk going forwards. Most counties are seeing an exponential rise in cases, they either have to lock down (no F1) or cases spiral (No F1).

Even Zandvoort which they have said will go ahead has 503 cases:
https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/03/d ... es-by-one/

By the 4th of May, with the current growth of 15% per day they'd have over 1 million cases by then, which obviously won't happen, there will be a lockdown.

The next clear GP is Azerbaijan, with 15 cases but if they see the exponential growth by June it'll be in a lockdown.

I think the best hope for this season is back to back races by the end of the year.

I really do hope i'm proven wrong as i've been an F1 fan for 11 years and this was the first year I've got tickets to a race :(


that 15% per day growth is reasonable....requires an 'exposure factor' which is initially is 1.0 but drops towards zero with quarantines or just the fact that contacts are mostly repeat contacts. Like in a room with 10 people and 9 already have it, the nine are all trying to infect the same person.

This is why despite the growth rate Netherlands will never get 20 million cases. In fact the 'exposure factor' will mean the 1 million by 4th of May is also high...but partly because they WILL be in lockdown.

Australia (just because the race is just early enough)
Bahrain (Only a week later and with no crowd)
Vietnam maybe.....
but hard to see any beyond that without some form of breakthrough


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:54 am 
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I suspect you are right, lano. I suspect there will be races cancelled at the very least and fear for the season. Here in the USA the NBA has suspended their season, the NCAA basketball tourney will be played with our fans in the stands, other major sports have also suspended activity as well. When one considers closed borders, and internal governmental actions world-wide, things could get worse before they get better.

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PostPosted: Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:03 am 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
Jenson's Understeer wrote:
I think we'll lose a lot of the early races. Bahrain definitely. Vietnam, I can see them going to extraordinary lengths to try and keep the race on but ultimately not being able to. And then the early part of the European calendar has got to be under threat as well, given it's two months away and that gives it plenty of time to spread, become a full-blown pandemic and really start resulting in a lot of large scale events not happening.


Actually that may end up being the opposite. The reason for containment is to try and avoid this becoming and pandemic. Usually a pandemic is called when containment has failed and become futile. Containment may well be wound down and focus will turn elsewhere in terms of finding and developing vaccines and treatments.

Note we had a pandemic 10 years ago which did not result in events being cancelled.


This is definitely one of those times when I really wish I'd been wrong.

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