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Which driver will win the Mercedes TMW vote in 2020?
Poll ended at Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:27 am
Lewis Hamilton 94%  94%  [ 17 ]
Valtteri Bottas 6%  6%  [ 1 ]
Total votes : 18
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:27 am 
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So, less than two weeks away from (hopefully) the first race of the 2020 season, we come to our final TMW prediction thread: Mercedes.

The dominant force in F1's hybrid era, taking an unparalleled six successive WDC and WCC doubles, and now hoping to add to that before the next large regulation change. Their innovative DAS system has demonstrated that they haven't taken their foot off the gas, firing off a warning shot to Red Bull and Ferrari in the process. While it should be taken with a large pinch of salt, they did appear to be the quickest team in testing and really, who would bet against them after the last six seasons? And if that is the case then there will only be two questions: firstly, can either Red Bull or Ferrari get close enough to thrust one of their drivers into the title fight and, secondly, if they cannot then can Valtteri Bottas actually give us a title fight? Well one thing that might suggest he can at least get closer is their head-to-head qualifying data, provided by racefans.net:

2017: 13-6 to Hamilton, average gap of .285 seconds
2018: 15-6 to Hamilton, average gap of .172 seconds
2019: 14-7 to Hamilton, average gap of .122 seconds

While Hamilton has consistently outqualified Bottas over their three seasons as teammates (leading the head to head 42-19), in each season Bottas has eaten into the average gap he has been behind by. 2019 was also his strongest season in terms of actual results, taking five pole positions, winning four races, visiting the podium on 15 occasions and scoring a career high 326 points en route to his first top-2 finish in the WDC.

...and therein lies the issue. Because despite getting closer in quali, despite taking more poles, winning more races and having his best season, Lewis still took his sixth WDC, Lewis still won the WDC by nearly 100 points, and Lewis still had the title wrapped up with two races to go. Now granted, the points deficit between the two was, in part, due to Bottas' DNF in Brazil and subsequent grid penalty in Abu Dhabi. But it's hard to argue that Bottas was ever really seen as in a legitimate title fight with his teammate despite his own improvements. Is there enough to suggest he can improve again in 2020 and really take the fight to Hamilton, or will it be the usual scenario where Bottas starts well but Lewis quickly asserts his dominance? Could it even go even worse for Bottas if either Verstappen or the Ferraris end up getting into the gap between him and his teammate, leaving him facing a fight to finish 2nd?

2019 TMW Result

Lewis Hamilton over Valtteri Bottas (16-5, 73%)
96% of votes pre-season votes correctly predicted Hamilton would triumph

2020 Prediction Results

Ferrari: Charles Leclerc 83% - 17% Sebastian Vettel
Red Bull: Max Verstappen 95% - 5% Alex Albon
McLaren: Lando Norris 75% - 25% Carlos Sainz
Renault: Daniel Ricciardo 82% - 18% Esteban Ocon
AlphaTauri: Pierre Gasly 82% - 18% Daniil Kvyat
Racing Point: Sergio Perez 88% - 13% Lance Stroll
Alfa Romeo: Kimi Raikkonen 86% - 14% Antonio Giovinazzi
Haas: Kevin Magnussen 71% - 29% Romain Grosjean
Williams: George Russell 95% - 5% Nicholas Latifi

83% of us are predicting Charles Leclerc will build on his debut season with Ferrari to take the TMW honours for 2020. This is only the second time we've gone against the grain, so to speak, and backed a driver who didn't win the TMW in 2019 to do so in 2020 (the other being Lando Norris).

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:30 am 
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Got to be Hamilton for this one and would expect it play out in a similar way to last season.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:42 am 
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I'm the one who voted for Valtteri. It's in part a wish and in part a very serious prediction, and here's the reasoning. First of all it's evident that he's gotten closer and closer by each season. With all else equal (including reliability) the trend says this probably won't be enough, but that's where I get to the second point. Usually Valtteri has been stronger during the first half of the season, and with the Corona flu possibly escalating into a full-blown pandemic, it's probable we will only see a partial season which could mean Hamilton doesn't have enough races to overcome any deficit in the points table.

So if Valtteri has a strong start to the season, good reliability and luck, and circumstances (especilly a late-season pandemic) prevent Hamilton from stretching his legs in the second half of the season, I say Bottas has a decent chance.

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Last edited by Covalent on Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:43 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:42 am 
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Hamilton is just too good over a season for Bottas to be able to challenge him. Bottas will have his good days, but not often enough.

I'd be interesting to hear the rationale from anyone who thinks Bottas will win this year.



Edit: Cross posted with Covalent above - thanks!

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:06 pm 
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I'm not so sure about this Bottas getting closer season on season to Hamilton, it's true that there is a pattern of Bottas getting closer to Hamilton in qualifying but not so much in the races themselves.

Bottas' worse season was his second season and conversely his best season was his first season in respect to Hamilton, it looks like last season was Bottas' best season but that's because that's the first Mercedes car he had that was the out and out best car.

Good on Covalent to say that it was him that voted for Bottas but that really seems to be based on hope as much as anything, a shortened season, well races can get rescheduled.

Bottas' best chance of beating Hamilton is with having a dominant car and Hamilton having more mechanical issues ala 2016, not merely the best car like last year.

In such things surely you vote for who you think is going to win and a pattern has been set that Hamilton is better than Bottas.

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2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:50 pm 
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Covalent wrote:
I'm the one who voted for Valtteri. It's in part a wish and in part a very serious prediction, and here's the reasoning. First of all it's evident that he's gotten closer and closer by each season. With all else equal (including reliability) the trend says this probably won't be enough, but that's where I get to the second point. Usually Valtteri has been stronger during the first half of the season, and with the Corona flu possibly escalating into a full-blown pandemic, it's probable we will only see a partial season which could mean Hamilton doesn't have enough races to overcome any deficit in the points table.

So if Valtteri has a strong start to the season, good reliability and luck, and circumstances (especilly a late-season pandemic) prevent Hamilton from stretching his legs in the second half of the season, I say Bottas has a decent chance.


I think it could well be the opposite. I can see it's quite likely we have a big gap between Australia and the Netherlands GPs and that may take out Bottas' early seen boost.

Races are much less likely to get cancelled later in the season. Containment will either work and things will have either settled down or containment fails we will go into a pandemic meaning containment measures are likely to be wound down.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:53 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
Covalent wrote:
I'm the one who voted for Valtteri. It's in part a wish and in part a very serious prediction, and here's the reasoning. First of all it's evident that he's gotten closer and closer by each season. With all else equal (including reliability) the trend says this probably won't be enough, but that's where I get to the second point. Usually Valtteri has been stronger during the first half of the season, and with the Corona flu possibly escalating into a full-blown pandemic, it's probable we will only see a partial season which could mean Hamilton doesn't have enough races to overcome any deficit in the points table.

So if Valtteri has a strong start to the season, good reliability and luck, and circumstances (especilly a late-season pandemic) prevent Hamilton from stretching his legs in the second half of the season, I say Bottas has a decent chance.


I think it could well be the opposite. I can see it's quite likely we have a big gap between Australia and the Netherlands GPs and that may take out Bottas' early seen boost.

Races are much less likely to get cancelled later in the season. Containment will either work and things will have either settled down or containment fails we will go into a pandemic meaning containment measures are likely to be wound down.

Indeed when you're into a full blown pandemic then there's nothing to be gained by cancelling a F1 race.

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PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place

2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (8)


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 03, 2020 2:55 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
Covalent wrote:
I'm the one who voted for Valtteri. It's in part a wish and in part a very serious prediction, and here's the reasoning. First of all it's evident that he's gotten closer and closer by each season. With all else equal (including reliability) the trend says this probably won't be enough, but that's where I get to the second point. Usually Valtteri has been stronger during the first half of the season, and with the Corona flu possibly escalating into a full-blown pandemic, it's probable we will only see a partial season which could mean Hamilton doesn't have enough races to overcome any deficit in the points table.

So if Valtteri has a strong start to the season, good reliability and luck, and circumstances (especilly a late-season pandemic) prevent Hamilton from stretching his legs in the second half of the season, I say Bottas has a decent chance.


I think it could well be the opposite. I can see it's quite likely we have a big gap between Australia and the Netherlands GPs and that may take out Bottas' early seen boost.

Races are much less likely to get cancelled later in the season. Containment will either work and things will have either settled down or containment fails we will go into a pandemic meaning containment measures are likely to be wound down.

Yes if that is the case then it'll not work out in Valtteri's favour.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:50 pm 
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I'm going for Hamilton, but I think Bottas is more or less on Rosberg's level, but in a very different way. The interesting thing is, even in Bottas's first season, If Hamilton had retired instead of him in Spain, Hamilton will have won the championship by just 3 points. This was despite this being a year where the team had Ferrari constantly challenging them. So would being dominant have made Bottas closer?

Bottas has in fact had at least 1 more retirement that isn't him to blame each season as Hamilton's team mate, on the whole being more unlucky than Hamilton. Probably due for better or at least equal luck, but we obviously can't predict this. But it would well be the case that it is the other way round, so it could well be very tight like it would have been in 2017 had the retirements been reversed. So even with a small difference like that, it won't be unrealistic for Bottas to get it if just a bit of luck is on his side. I think he has as much of a chance as Rosberg did if Mercedes are that strong, especially now Hamilton could potentially start to be past his best.

Hamilton has been incredibly good for so many years, but I somehow now doubt he's going to be getting any better. In fact, I'm going to take a guess that he may not be quite as impressive has been in previous seasons. This may not look apparent, but I think that this may allow Bottas to get closer. I expect Bottas to improve slightly performance wise better again this season, but yea, I don't think it will be by much. But I think the gap will reduce quite a lot because of the reasons I've explained. But it is simply me guessing.

I do think Bottas has improved in qualifying, to the point where i honestly feel Bottas will be close to being tied or possibly just aboutbeating Hamilton in the qualifying battle this year. But this is again for a similar reason I have explained. It could be that Hamilton wasn't quite as good as previous years that Bottas was getting closer more often. I think it was a bit of both him having better 1 lap pace as well as that though. If he improves more this year and the overtaking difficulties are still there, that is another reason why I think he will close up in the points.

I think I've been a bit too optimistic with Bottas in the last 2 seasons (many will probably think i still am now), and with equal luck (which he certainly deserves), I still certainly don't expect him to beat Hamilton this season either. But I think it will be the closest he's been points wise this year.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:25 pm 
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Seeing the results for all the teams, I may as well mention the two that I went for that seem different to the vast majority. And they are Kvyat and Grosjean and Vettel over their team mates.

I know i'm being optimistic with Vettel, but other than qualifying, I think he more often than not looked quicker than Leclerc and despite Leclerc likely getting better this year, I just feel Vettel is going to cut down on his simple mistakes and put his experience to good use. I think it will be close, but I feel Vettel will edge Leclerc. I don't mind people judging this as very optimistic as it is me guessing more than anything else.

I'm more wondering why Gasly is voted so far ahead of Kvyat. Most voting him ahead, i would understand, but this much seems strange IMO. Gasly wasn't treated well as Red Bull, but he looked far worse at that team than Kvyat did. And I don't just mean because of the pace difference between team mates (this admittedly is a bit unfair as Verstappen is now better than Ricciardo in 2015), but more the level of stupid mistakes in a car that likely handles better than the rest. Not to mention crashes with other drivers. Kvyat wasn't without these, but didn't look quite that bad at Red Bull.
Overall last season, Kvyat looked a fair bit better than Gasly. If you judge them from when both were at Toro Rosso, then certainly Gasly did better, but it wasn't by as much as it looked. Kvyat had worse luck in this stage of the season and missed what could have been a great result in Italy. Kvyat did make some silly mistakes at the end of a couple of races, but his speed wasn't lacking in either of those two. He sometimes makes mistakes, but also often does very clean racing. Him vs albon in hungary was IMO some of the cleanest racing from any drivers this year. He's a bit up and down, but that hardly not the case with Gasly either. I think neither will be that good, but I think Kvyat will get more points.


I've said enough in other threads about Grosjean and Magnussen's performance in 2019 in other threads. But I don't get why views have changed since the predictions of last season. Despite Magnussen getting more points in 2018, at least people seemed to notice that Grosjean was the better performer in the 2nd half of the season despite a terrible first half. And likely couldn't get many points due to the car being outdeveloped by the rest. That I'm guessing is what resulted in most voting for Grosjean for 2019. But what is it that triggered such a swing in the opposite direction? Magnussen got more points again, yes, but I think the reason why is even more obvious than the previous year. And it wasn't because of Grosjean having a terrible first half, it was more terrible luck in general, significantly worse than any driver on the grid. Probably not noticed by most due to a lack of sympathy because of his reputation. In reality, he looked a fair bit better overall for the last year and a half actually (other than qualifying), no matter what the points suggest. So I don't get why the votes are as they are. Probably the one I disagree with the outcome most strongly.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:36 pm 
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TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Seeing the results for all the teams, I may as well mention the two that I went for that seem different to the vast majority. And they are Kvyat and Grosjean and Vettel over their team mates.

I know i'm being optimistic with Vettel, but other than qualifying, I think he more often than not looked quicker than Leclerc and despite Leclerc likely getting better this year, I just feel Vettel is going to cut down on his simple mistakes and put his experience to good use. I think it will be close, but I feel Vettel will edge Leclerc. I don't mind people judging this as very optimistic as it is me guessing more than anything else.

I'm more wondering why Gasly is voted so far ahead of Kvyat. Most voting him ahead, i would understand, but this much seems strange IMO. Gasly wasn't treated well as Red Bull, but he looked far worse at that team than Kvyat did. And I don't just mean because of the pace difference between team mates (this admittedly is a bit unfair as Verstappen is now better than Ricciardo in 2015), but more the level of stupid mistakes in a car that likely handles better than the rest. Not to mention crashes with other drivers. Kvyat wasn't without these, but didn't look quite that bad at Red Bull.
Overall last season, Kvyat looked a fair bit better than Gasly. If you judge them from when both were at Toro Rosso, then certainly Gasly did better, but it wasn't by as much as it looked. Kvyat had worse luck in this stage of the season and missed what could have been a great result in Italy. Kvyat did make some silly mistakes at the end of a couple of races, but his speed wasn't lacking in either of those two. He sometimes makes mistakes, but also often does very clean racing. Him vs albon in hungary was IMO some of the cleanest racing from any drivers this year. He's a bit up and down, but that hardly not the case with Gasly either. I think neither will be that good, but I think Kvyat will get more points.


I've said enough in other threads about Grosjean and Magnussen's performance in 2019 in other threads. But I don't get why views have changed since the predictions of last season. Despite Magnussen getting more points in 2018, at least people seemed to notice that Grosjean was the better performer in the 2nd half of the season despite a terrible first half. And likely couldn't get many points due to the car being outdeveloped by the rest. That I'm guessing is what resulted in most voting for Grosjean for 2019. But what is it that triggered such a swing in the opposite direction? Magnussen got more points again, yes, but I think the reason why is even more obvious than the previous year. And it wasn't because of Grosjean having a terrible first half, it was more terrible luck in general, significantly worse than any driver on the grid. Probably not noticed by most due to a lack of sympathy because of his reputation. In reality, he looked a fair bit better overall for the last year and a half actually (other than qualifying), no matter what the points suggest. So I don't get why the votes are as they are. Probably the one I disagree with the outcome most strongly.


I think your judgement on Vettel and Kvyat is simply illogical. We've already seen Gasly better than Kvyat in the same team with all the cards stacked against him. Why would anyone expect that to change when Gasly gets to be in the car from the start this year. The Comparison Gasly-Verstappen-Ricciardo-Kvyat puts them about equal on pace anyway.

As for the Ferrari drivers, we almost always see drivers as young as Leclerc improve and we almost always see drivers improve in their second season in the team. Therefore it's only logical to expect Leclerc to take a step forward in 2020. Why do you expect Vettel to suddenly cut down on the mistakes he's been making for at least the last 3 seasons? Vettel making too many mistakes is nothing new. Why do you expect it to stop?

I'm more on board with Grosjean. I voted for him and think he is a fundamentally better driver than Magnussen. I think people are just fed up to the back teeth of his whining tbh. We've seen the exact same stuff from him for nearly a decade now.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 03, 2020 10:42 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Seeing the results for all the teams, I may as well mention the two that I went for that seem different to the vast majority. And they are Kvyat and Grosjean and Vettel over their team mates.

I know i'm being optimistic with Vettel, but other than qualifying, I think he more often than not looked quicker than Leclerc and despite Leclerc likely getting better this year, I just feel Vettel is going to cut down on his simple mistakes and put his experience to good use. I think it will be close, but I feel Vettel will edge Leclerc. I don't mind people judging this as very optimistic as it is me guessing more than anything else.

I'm more wondering why Gasly is voted so far ahead of Kvyat. Most voting him ahead, i would understand, but this much seems strange IMO. Gasly wasn't treated well as Red Bull, but he looked far worse at that team than Kvyat did. And I don't just mean because of the pace difference between team mates (this admittedly is a bit unfair as Verstappen is now better than Ricciardo in 2015), but more the level of stupid mistakes in a car that likely handles better than the rest. Not to mention crashes with other drivers. Kvyat wasn't without these, but didn't look quite that bad at Red Bull.
Overall last season, Kvyat looked a fair bit better than Gasly. If you judge them from when both were at Toro Rosso, then certainly Gasly did better, but it wasn't by as much as it looked. Kvyat had worse luck in this stage of the season and missed what could have been a great result in Italy. Kvyat did make some silly mistakes at the end of a couple of races, but his speed wasn't lacking in either of those two. He sometimes makes mistakes, but also often does very clean racing. Him vs albon in hungary was IMO some of the cleanest racing from any drivers this year. He's a bit up and down, but that hardly not the case with Gasly either. I think neither will be that good, but I think Kvyat will get more points.


I've said enough in other threads about Grosjean and Magnussen's performance in 2019 in other threads. But I don't get why views have changed since the predictions of last season. Despite Magnussen getting more points in 2018, at least people seemed to notice that Grosjean was the better performer in the 2nd half of the season despite a terrible first half. And likely couldn't get many points due to the car being outdeveloped by the rest. That I'm guessing is what resulted in most voting for Grosjean for 2019. But what is it that triggered such a swing in the opposite direction? Magnussen got more points again, yes, but I think the reason why is even more obvious than the previous year. And it wasn't because of Grosjean having a terrible first half, it was more terrible luck in general, significantly worse than any driver on the grid. Probably not noticed by most due to a lack of sympathy because of his reputation. In reality, he looked a fair bit better overall for the last year and a half actually (other than qualifying), no matter what the points suggest. So I don't get why the votes are as they are. Probably the one I disagree with the outcome most strongly.


I think your judgement on Vettel and Kvyat is simply illogical. We've already seen Gasly better than Kvyat in the same team with all the cards stacked against him. Why would anyone expect that to change when Gasly gets to be in the car from the start this year. The Comparison Gasly-Verstappen-Ricciardo-Kvyat puts them about equal on pace anyway.

As for the Ferrari drivers, we almost always see drivers as young as Leclerc improve and we almost always see drivers improve in their second season in the team. Therefore it's only logical to expect Leclerc to take a step forward in 2020. Why do you expect Vettel to suddenly cut down on the mistakes he's been making for at least the last 3 seasons? Vettel making too many mistakes is nothing new. Why do you expect it to stop?

I'm more on board with Grosjean. I voted for him and think he is a fundamentally better driver than Magnussen. I think people are just fed up to the back teeth of his whining tbh. We've seen the exact same stuff from him for nearly a decade now.


Well Vettel knows who he's up against as he's been with him last year and I think he'll change his mindset this year enough that it will help him. I said this one was optimistic and I don't exactly disagree that the majority are going for Leclerc.

Kvyat has only been slightly worse than Gasly since they were both together, but half a season doesn't reflect enough IMO. I think Kvyat actually looked pretty good in the first half which Gasly didn't. I know it's best not to compare that, but I think that they are close, and I personally think Kvyat will edge him. I'm not surprised to see Gasly on top in the votes, but it is the margin that surprises me. We have no evidence that he can have a good full season. And he was against Hartley the previous year who possibly was the slowest driver on the gird in quite some time after Kubica. Another optimistic guess admittedly, but it is what I think.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 04, 2020 12:25 am 
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Guys, can we focus on Mercedes here please? There are other threads for Grosjean, Kvyat and Vettel.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:44 am 
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P-F1 Mod wrote:
Guys, can we focus on Mercedes here please? There are other threads for Grosjean, Kvyat and Vettel.


viewtopic.php?f=3&t=15411

The final team's TMW thread last year was also used to show the results for all the teams and not just Ferrari (which is why I thought I would discuss some of my decisions all in the same thread). No other specific thread was created from what I remember. I got the impression that as the opening post said "2020 Prediction Results" and gave all the results of the teams below that it would be the same as last year and all teams could be discussed here as it is the last team. I was surprised now I look back that not much was discussed about the results, but there was again brief discussions of other teams. I did think about it before writing, but I have explained the reasons why I thought it was OK to talk about the other teams. Will there be another thread to compare the results? It is a bit hard not to end up bringing up more than one team in the individual TMW threads when going into detail.

Maybe the thread title could have the addition of the end results or something.


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 05, 2020 10:26 am 
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There's nothing wrong with comparing, but since your post barely mentioned Mercedes and focused mostly on points you said you already made in the other threads, I'm not sure why those discussions can't continue where you first raised them.

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